Crawley Town Vs Port Vale

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Port Vale for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.06 3.35 2.3 2.04 1.79
Estim 2.78 3.58 2.77 2.27 1.79
Value % 3.29 -1.92 -7.38 -4.97 0



Basic Data and latest results


Crawley Town basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 5 5 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 2 2 52 5 6 5 2




Crawley Town latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Scunthorpe A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Exeter H 1 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Sutton H 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Rochdale A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Tranmere A 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Bradford H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Harrogate H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Colchester A 1 0 W U Ng



Port Vale basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Away 3 2 2 52 6 5 2 5




Port Vale latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Colchester H 3 0 W O Ng
19 Oct Mansfield A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Barrow H 3 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Sutton A 3 4 L O Gg
02 Oct Leyton Orient H 3 2 W O Gg
25 Sep Scunthorpe A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Harrogate H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Swindon A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Crawley Town is -0.491 and for the Port Vale is 0.496.
  • The home dynamic for the Crawley Town is 0.368 and the dynamic as a guest for the Port Vale is 0.177.
  • The offensive ability for the Crawley Town is 0.591 and for the Port Vale is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Crawley Town is -0.547 and for the Port Vale is -0.207.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Crawley Town 31% 34% 23% 12%
Port Vale 30% 36% 22% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.08 goals and Port Vale to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.17 goals and Port Vale to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.87 0-1 3.3
1 4.74 2-3 2.04
2 3.88 4+ 4.81
3 4.31 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.3
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.27
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.78
Gg 2.06 Ov 3.5 4.81
NoG 1.94 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3 3.29 2.75
2-3 goals 2.61 4.05 2.71
4+ goals 2.93 3.15 2.93
Ov 1.5 2.69 3.73 2.77
Un 1.5 3 3.29 2.75
Ov 2.5 2.32 6.67 2.39
Un 2.5 3.3 2.63 3.15
Ov 3.5 2.93 3.15 2.93
Un 3.5 2.74 3.72 2.73
Goal-Goal 3.17 2.59 3.34
No Goal 2.49 5.61 2.38
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.38 5.52 2.51
NG+Un 2.5 2.59 5.61 2.47



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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