Derby Vs Blackburn

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Derby and Blackburn for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.82 3.23 2.59 2.22 1.68
Estim 2.33 3.73 3.3 2.14 1.88
Value % 7.46 -4.15 -8.31 1.68 -6.33



Basic Data and latest results


Derby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 3 3 1 5
Last 3 0 3 0 33 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 5 0 52 5 4 2 5




Derby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Coventry A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Oct Luton H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Preston A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Swansea H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Sep Reading H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Sheffield United A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Stoke H 2 1 W O Gg
14 Sep West Brom A 0 0 D U Ng



Blackburn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 3 3 29 5 6 3 4




Blackburn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Reading H 2 0 W U Ng
19 Oct QPR A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Coventry H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Blackpool A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Huddersfield A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Cardiff H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Barnsley A 0 0 D U Ng
14 Sep Hull H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Derby is 0.009 and for the Blackburn is -0.163.
  • The home dynamic for the Derby is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is -0.185.
  • The offensive ability for the Derby is -0.104 and for the Blackburn is 0.571.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is 0.368 and for the Blackburn is -0.533.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Derby 28% 30% 21% 20%
Blackburn 34% 37% 16% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 1.1 goals and Blackburn to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.33 goals and Blackburn to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.31 0-1 3.29
1 4.83 2-3 2.16
2 4.35 4+ 4.27
3 4.31 Ov 1.5 1.44
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.29
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.15
6+ 38.46 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 2.12 Ov 3.5 4.27
NoG 1.89 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.95 3.13 2.92
2-3 goals 2.11 4.16 3.5
4+ goals 2.21 3.84 3.49
Ov 1.5 2.14 4.05 3.5
Un 1.5 2.95 3.13 2.92
Ov 2.5 1.85 7.64 3.05
Un 2.5 3.03 2.57 3.56
Ov 3.5 2.21 3.84 3.49
Un 3.5 2.38 3.68 3.25
Goal-Goal 2.57 2.74 4.07
No Goal 2.16 5.44 2.82
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.96 5.92 3.11
NG+Un 2.5 2.4 5.44 2.82



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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