Dortmund Vs FC Koln

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Dortmund and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.48 4.96 6.15 1.39 2.94
Estim 1.81 4.26 4.72 1.61 2.64
Value % -12.32 3.31 4.93 -9.83 3.87



Basic Data and latest results


Dortmund basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 5 6 5 1
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 3 3 0
At Home 5 0 0 100 5 5 5 0




Dortmund latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Bielefeld A 3 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Mainz H 3 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Augsburg H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep M’gladbach A 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep Union Berlin H 4 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Leverkusen A 4 3 W O Gg
27 Aug Hoffenheim H 3 2 W O Gg
21 Aug Freiburg A 1 2 L O Gg



FC Koln basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 3 0
At Away 0 2 2 17 3 4 2 2




FC Koln latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Leverkusen H 2 2 D O Gg
15 Oct Hoffenheim A 0 5 L O Ng
01 Oct Greuther Furth H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Ein Frankfurt A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep RB Leipzig H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Freiburg A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Bochum H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Bayern Munich A 2 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Dortmund is 0.798 and for the FC Koln is -0.015.
  • The home dynamic for the Dortmund is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Koln is -0.449.
  • The offensive ability for the Dortmund is 0.626 and for the FC Koln is 0.571.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Dortmund is -1 and for the FC Koln is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Dortmund 16% 30% 8% 46%
FC Koln 28% 42% 19% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 2.55 goals and FC Koln to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.42 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 1.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.84 goals and FC Koln to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.95 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 21.74 0-1 5.03
1 6.54 2-3 2.4
2 5.56 4+ 2.6
3 4.22 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 4.13 Un 1.5 5.03
5 10.53 Ov 2.5 1.61
6+ 20.83 Un 2.5 2.64
Gg 1.66 Ov 3.5 2.6
NoG 2.5 Un 3.5 1.62


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.37 4.33 2.88
2-3 goals 2.24 3.28 4.01
4+ goals 1.36 6.11 9.87
Ov 1.5 1.71 4.22 5.61
Un 1.5 2.37 4.33 2.88
Ov 2.5 1.39 9.87 5.55
Un 2.5 3.58 2.19 3.79
Ov 3.5 1.36 6.11 9.87
Un 3.5 2.28 3.56 3.56
Goal-Goal 1.9 3.16 6.33
No Goal 1.69 8.7 3.42
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.5 7.52 4.99
NG+Un 2.5 2.38 8.7 2.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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