Famalicao Vs Vizela

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Famalicao and Vizela for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.01 3.4 3.59 2.04 1.81
Estim 1.98 3.8 4.33 2.28 1.78
Value % 0.75 -3.1 -4.76 -5.16 0.93



Basic Data and latest results


Famalicao basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Home 0 2 2 17 3 3 2 2




Famalicao latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Santa Clara A 2 0 W U Ng
01 Oct Guimaraes H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Tondela A 2 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Maritimo H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Moreirense A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Sp Lisbon H 1 1 D U Gg
20 Aug Arouca A 1 2 L O Gg
15 Aug Porto H 1 2 L O Gg



Vizela basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 5 1 28 4 5 1 5
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
At Away 0 2 2 17 1 3 3 1




Vizela latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Benfica H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Santa Clara H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Portimonense A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Pacos Ferreira H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Gil Vicente A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Boavista H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Aug Guimaraes A 0 4 L O Ng
14 Aug Tondela H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Famalicao is -0.202 and for the Vizela is -0.2.
  • The home dynamic for the Famalicao is -0.641 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vizela is -0.419.
  • The offensive ability for the Famalicao is 0.626 and for the Vizela is 0.142.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Famalicao is 0.021 and for the Vizela is -0.586.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Famalicao 23% 33% 24% 20%
Vizela 42% 34% 17% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.46 goals and Vizela to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Famalicao to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.42 goals and Vizela to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Famalicao to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.23
1 4.65 2-3 2.04
2 4 4+ 5
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.45
4 7.52 Un 1.5 3.23
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.79
Gg 2.22 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 1.82 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.28 3.26 3.92
2-3 goals 1.83 4.37 4.45
4+ goals 1.94 3.64 4.76
Ov 1.5 1.86 4.13 4.53
Un 1.5 2.28 3.26 3.92
Ov 2.5 1.63 7.98 3.85
Un 2.5 2.37 2.71 4.79
Ov 3.5 1.94 3.64 4.76
Un 3.5 1.98 3.86 4.23
Goal-Goal 2.42 2.69 4.64
No Goal 1.72 5.78 4.1
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.82 6.15 3.48
NG+Un 2.5 1.9 5.78 3.83



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *