Fuenlabrada Vs Girona

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.88 3.01 2.63 2.52 1.55
Estim 2.02 3.76 4.2 2.21 1.83
Value % 14.78 -6.63 -14.21 5.57 -9.87



Basic Data and latest results


Fuenlabrada basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 4 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 1 1 2
At Home 2 3 1 50 5 5 3 3




Fuenlabrada latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Ibiza A 1 3 L O Gg
20 Oct Amorebieta H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Ponferradina A 0 0 D U Ng
10 Oct Leganes H 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
27 Sep Cartagena H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Huesca A 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg



Girona basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 3 27 2 4 2 3




Girona latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Oct Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Oct Mirandes A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Huesca H 1 3 L O Gg
09 Oct Lugo A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Oct Almeria H 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Oviedo A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Valladolid H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Malaga A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fuenlabrada is -0.07 and for the Girona is -0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Fuenlabrada is 0.145 and the dynamic as a guest for the Girona is -0.313.
  • The offensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is -0.191 and for the Girona is 0.313.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is 0.021 and for the Girona is -0.674.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fuenlabrada 21% 34% 26% 18%
Girona 38% 37% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.01 goals and Girona to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.42 goals and Girona to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.52
1 4.85 2-3 1.98
2 3.8 4+ 4.81
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.52
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 2.03 Ov 3.5 4.81
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.18 3.64 3.74
2-3 goals 1.92 4.02 4.36
4+ goals 2.06 3.3 4.73
Ov 1.5 1.96 3.78 4.46
Un 1.5 2.18 3.64 3.74
Ov 2.5 1.7 7.16 3.7
Un 2.5 2.39 2.68 4.8
Ov 3.5 2.06 3.3 4.73
Un 3.5 2.01 3.87 4.11
Goal-Goal 2.5 2.61 4.61
No Goal 1.69 6.47 3.91
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.86 5.83 3.43
NG+Un 2.5 1.84 6.47 3.69



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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