Fulham Vs West Brom

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fulham and West Brom for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.09 3.48 3.44 1.86 1.96
Estim 2.29 3.73 3.39 1.98 2.02
Value % -4.18 -1.93 0.43 -3.26 -1.52



Basic Data and latest results


Fulham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 2 1
At Home 5 1 1 76 7 4 4 3




Fulham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Nott’m Forest A 4 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Cardiff H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct QPR H 4 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Coventry A 1 4 L O Gg
29 Sep Swansea H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Bristol City A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Reading H 1 2 L O Gg
15 Sep Birmingham A 4 1 W O Gg



West Brom basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 3 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 2 1
At Away 3 2 2 52 6 5 4 3




West Brom latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Bristol City H 3 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Swansea A 1 2 L O Gg
15 Oct Birmingham H 1 0 W U Ng
01 Oct Stoke A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Sep Cardiff A 4 0 W O Ng
24 Sep QPR H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Preston A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Derby H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fulham is 0.632 and for the West Brom is 0.311.
  • The home dynamic for the Fulham is 0.205 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Brom is 0.275.
  • The offensive ability for the Fulham is 1 and for the West Brom is 0.631.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fulham is 0.084 and for the West Brom is 0.233.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fulham 22% 32% 30% 16%
West Brom 30% 34% 25% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.53 goals and West Brom to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Fulham to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.41 goals and West Brom to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.93 0-1 4.18
1 5.81 2-3 1.96
2 3.92 4+ 3.97
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.1 Un 1.5 4.18
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 1.97
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 2.02
Gg 1.84 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.19 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.46 3.57 3.19
2-3 goals 2.09 4.68 3.25
4+ goals 2.6 2.71 4.06
Ov 1.5 2.23 3.77 3.48
Un 1.5 2.46 3.57 3.19
Ov 2.5 2.03 5.45 3.09
Un 2.5 2.63 2.81 3.8
Ov 3.5 2.6 2.71 4.06
Un 3.5 2.2 4.26 3.23
Goal-Goal 2.72 2.69 3.83
No Goal 1.92 6.82 3.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.17 4.68 3.06
NG+Un 2.5 2.05 6.82 2.96



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *