Getafe Vs Espanol

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Getafe and Espanol for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.37 3.08 3.34 2.63 1.47
Estim 1.99 4.05 3.98 1.76 2.31
Value % 8.06 -7.78 -4.81 18.8 -24.74



Basic Data and latest results


Getafe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 3 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 1 2
At Home 0 1 4 7 2 5 2 3




Getafe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Oct Granada A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Oct Celta H 0 3 L O Ng
16 Oct Levante A 0 0 D U Ng
03 Oct Sociedad H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Betis A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Sep Ath Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Vallecano A 0 3 L O Ng
13 Sep Elche H 0 1 L U Ng



Espanol basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 4 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 1 2
At Away 0 3 2 20 2 4 2 3




Espanol latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Ath Bilbao H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Elche A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Oct Cadiz H 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Real Madrid H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Sevilla A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep Alaves H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Betis A 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Ath Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Getafe is -0.561 and for the Espanol is 0.319.
  • The home dynamic for the Getafe is -0.983 and the dynamic as a guest for the Espanol is -0.374.
  • The offensive ability for the Getafe is -0.191 and for the Espanol is 0.657.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Getafe is -0.505 and for the Espanol is -0.269.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Getafe 20% 24% 31% 24%
Espanol 23% 49% 18% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.12 goals and Espanol to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.59 goals and Espanol to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 21.28 0-1 4.9
1 6.37 2-3 1.98
2 4.35 4+ 3.4
3 3.65 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 5.05 Un 1.5 4.9
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 1.76
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.3
Gg 1.63 Ov 3.5 3.4
NoG 2.58 Un 3.5 1.41


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.58 4.34 2.04
2-3 goals 1.77 4.17 5.09
4+ goals 1.81 3.72 5.55
Ov 1.5 1.79 3.99 5.25
Un 1.5 3.58 4.34 2.04
Ov 2.5 1.52 7.19 4.9
Un 2.5 3.34 2.58 3.19
Ov 3.5 1.81 3.72 5.55
Un 3.5 2.08 4.21 3.56
Goal-Goal 1.94 3.07 6.33
No Goal 2.09 8.26 2.5
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.56 6.24 5.08
NG+Un 2.5 2.41 8.26 2.3



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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