Giannina Vs Asteras Tripolis

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Giannina and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.72 3.02 2.76 2.73 1.47
Estim 1.99 3.66 4.44 2.26 1.8
Value % 13.49 -5.79 -13.71 7.62 -12.47



Basic Data and latest results


Giannina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 4 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2




Giannina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Apollon A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Olympiakos H 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Atromitos A 1 1 D U Gg
27 Sep OFI Crete H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Sep Ionikos A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Panathinaikos H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep PAOK A 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Asteras Tripolis basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 2 1 42 2 1 1 3




Asteras Tripolis latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Panathinaikos H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Apollon A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Volos NFC A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Olympiakos H 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep OFI Crete A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep PAOK H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Panetolikos A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Giannina is -0.298 and for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.089.
  • The home dynamic for the Giannina is -0.171 and the dynamic as a guest for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.034.
  • The offensive ability for the Giannina is 0.191 and for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.03.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Giannina is -0.189 and for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.207.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Giannina 28% 28% 17% 26%
Asteras Tripolis 47% 33% 7% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Giannina to score 0.99 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.41 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.41 0-1 2.75
1 4.39 2-3 2.31
2 5.13 4+ 4.83
3 4.22 Ov 1.5 1.56
4 7.41 Un 1.5 2.75
5 25.64 Ov 2.5 2.25
6+ 30.3 Un 2.5 1.79
Gg 2.65 Ov 3.5 4.83
NoG 1.6 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.73 2.69 3.82
2-3 goals 1.63 4.6 5.92
4+ goals 1.95 4.6 3.7
Ov 1.5 1.72 4.6 4.95
Un 1.5 2.73 2.69 3.82
Ov 2.5 1.54 9.87 4.04
Un 2.5 2.6 2.44 4.89
Ov 3.5 1.95 4.6 3.7
Un 3.5 2 3.47 4.73
Goal-Goal 2.3 2.72 5.04
No Goal 1.84 4.62 4.19
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.73 6.31 3.79
NG+Un 2.5 2.16 4.62 4.07



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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