Gillingham Vs Accrington

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Gillingham and Accrington for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.45 3.38 2.82 2.01 1.83
Estim 2.4 3.6 3.28 2.19 1.84
Value % 0.85 -1.81 -4.97 -4.09 -0.3



Basic Data and latest results


Gillingham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Home 2 2 3 38 6 6 3 4




Gillingham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Bolton A 2 2 D O Gg
19 Oct Doncaster H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Sunderland H 1 2 L O Gg
09 Oct Wycombe A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Wigan H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Sep Cambridge A 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Oxford A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Charlton H 1 1 D U Gg



Accrington basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 5 29 6 7 5 3




Accrington latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Portsmouth H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Oct Charlton A 3 2 W O Gg
16 Oct Cheltenham A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Ipswich H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Oxford A 1 5 L O Gg
25 Sep Morecambe A 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep Wigan H 1 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Sunderland A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Gillingham is -0.202 and for the Accrington is 0.022.
  • The home dynamic for the Gillingham is -0.308 and the dynamic as a guest for the Accrington is -0.374.
  • The offensive ability for the Gillingham is 0.278 and for the Accrington is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Gillingham is -0.084 and for the Accrington is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Gillingham 23% 38% 23% 15%
Accrington 32% 36% 23% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.29 goals and Accrington to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.3 goals and Accrington to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.56
1 4.85 2-3 1.98
2 3.8 4+ 4.63
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.56
5 17.54 Ov 2.5 2.19
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.84
Gg 1.92 Ov 3.5 4.63
NoG 2.09 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.32 3.75 3.31
2-3 goals 2.46 3.68 3.11
4+ goals 2.4 3.22 3.66
Ov 1.5 2.44 3.53 3.26
Un 1.5 2.32 3.75 3.31
Ov 2.5 2.06 6.82 2.72
Un 2.5 2.8 2.57 3.94
Ov 3.5 2.4 3.22 3.66
Un 3.5 2.41 3.7 3.18
Goal-Goal 3.02 2.56 3.6
No Goal 1.97 6.39 2.98
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.23 5.75 2.66
NG+Un 2.5 2.1 6.39 2.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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