Go Ahead Eagles Vs For Sittard

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Go Ahead Eagles and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.86 3.9 4.1 1.74 2.17
Estim 1.98 4.05 4.03 1.85 2.17
Value % -3.26 -0.95 0.42 -3.42 0



Basic Data and latest results


Go Ahead Eagles basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 5 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Home 3 0 2 60 4 3 2 3




Go Ahead Eagles latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Vitesse A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Heracles H 4 2 W O Gg
02 Oct Waalwijk A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep AZ Alkmaar A 0 5 L O Ng
22 Sep PSV Eindhoven H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Zwolle H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Cambuur A 2 5 L O Gg
28 Aug Sparta Rotterdam H 2 0 W U Ng



For Sittard basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 0 2 2 17 3 4 1 3




For Sittard latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Willem II A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Cambuur H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Nijmegen H 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Vitesse A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Ajax H 0 5 L O Ng
18 Sep Heerenveen A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Sparta Rotterdam A 1 3 L O Gg
27 Aug Waalwijk H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Go Ahead Eagles is 0.237 and for the For Sittard is -0.274.
  • The home dynamic for the Go Ahead Eagles is 0.145 and the dynamic as a guest for the For Sittard is -0.419.
  • The offensive ability for the Go Ahead Eagles is 0.626 and for the For Sittard is 0.339.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Go Ahead Eagles is -0.611 and for the For Sittard is -0.559.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Go Ahead Eagles 20% 29% 24% 27%
For Sittard 34% 36% 19% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Go Ahead Eagles to score 1.78 goals and For Sittard to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Go Ahead Eagles to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Go Ahead Eagles to score 1.58 goals and For Sittard to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Go Ahead Eagles to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 4.22
1 5.92 2-3 2.1
2 4.5 4+ 3.51
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.71 Un 1.5 4.22
5 12.82 Ov 2.5 1.85
6+ 31.25 Un 2.5 2.18
Gg 1.9 Ov 3.5 3.51
NoG 2.12 Un 3.5 1.4


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.42 3.49 3.34
2-3 goals 1.83 4.68 4.15
4+ goals 1.95 3.7 4.6
Ov 1.5 1.88 4.26 4.31
Un 1.5 2.42 3.49 3.34
Ov 2.5 1.67 7.01 3.88
Un 2.5 2.55 2.7 4.21
Ov 3.5 1.95 3.7 4.6
Un 3.5 1.99 4.2 3.84
Goal-Goal 2.27 2.94 4.54
No Goal 1.74 6.94 3.58
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.83 5.52 3.66
NG+Un 2.5 1.98 6.94 3.28



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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