Harrogate Vs Bristol Rvs

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Harrogate and Bristol Rvs for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.91 3.6 3.96 1.95 1.89
Estim 2.07 3.79 3.94 2 2
Value % -4.05 -1.39 0.13 -1.28 -2.91



Basic Data and latest results


Harrogate basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 5 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 4 0 62 6 6 5 2




Harrogate latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Hartlepool A 2 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Tranmere H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Colchester A 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Scunthorpe H 6 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Oldham A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Stevenage H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Sep Crawley Town A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Port Vale A 0 2 L U Ng



Bristol Rvs basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 5 1
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 3 3 29 6 7 4 3




Bristol Rvs latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Newport County H 1 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Colchester A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Bradford A 2 2 D O Gg
09 Oct Carlisle H 3 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Swindon H 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Walsall A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Leyton Orient H 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Hartlepool A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Harrogate is -0.079 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.052.
  • The home dynamic for the Harrogate is 0.171 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol Rvs is -0.215.
  • The offensive ability for the Harrogate is 0.278 and for the Bristol Rvs is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Harrogate is -0.611 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.621.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Harrogate 17% 41% 18% 24%
Bristol Rvs 34% 36% 21% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.58 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Harrogate to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.49 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Harrogate to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.24 0-1 3.88
1 5 2-3 2.04
2 4.12 4+ 3.98
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.17 Un 1.5 3.88
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.82 Ov 3.5 3.98
NoG 2.21 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.86 4.45 4.23
2-3 goals 2.4 3.34 3.53
4+ goals 1.82 4.25 4.65
Ov 1.5 2.16 3.6 3.84
Un 1.5 1.86 4.45 4.23
Ov 2.5 1.76 8.46 3.18
Un 2.5 2.52 2.44 5.16
Ov 3.5 1.82 4.25 4.65
Un 3.5 2.18 3.65 3.74
Goal-Goal 2.73 2.66 3.89
No Goal 1.61 7.79 4
G-G+Ov 2.5 2 6.8 2.84
NG+Un 2.5 1.78 7.79 3.65



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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