Heerenveen Vs Vitesse

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Heerenveen and Vitesse for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.52 3.46 2.6 1.69 2.2
Estim 2.31 4.07 3.12 1.58 2.71
Value % 3.61 -4.33 -6.41 4.12 -8.55



Basic Data and latest results


Heerenveen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 0 3 40 4 4 3 2




Heerenveen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Utrecht A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Ajax H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Zwolle A 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Twente H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Feyenoord A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep For Sittard H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Groningen A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug AZ Alkmaar H 1 3 L O Gg



Vitesse basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 4 0 1 80 4 2 2 3




Vitesse latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Go Ahead Eagles H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Nijmegen A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Feyenoord H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep For Sittard H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Groningen A 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Twente H 1 4 L O Gg
12 Sep Waalwijk A 2 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Ajax A 0 5 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Heerenveen is -0.465 and for the Vitesse is 0.17.
  • The home dynamic for the Heerenveen is -0.402 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vitesse is 0.638.
  • The offensive ability for the Heerenveen is 0.565 and for the Vitesse is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Heerenveen is -0.126 and for the Vitesse is -0.207.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Heerenveen 22% 20% 34% 24%
Vitesse 21% 36% 24% 18%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heerenveen to score 1.43 goals and Vitesse to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heerenveen to score 1.6 goals and Vitesse to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 21.28 0-1 5.88
1 8.13 2-3 2.17
2 5.05 4+ 2.7
3 3.82 Ov 1.5 1.2
4 4.85 Un 1.5 5.88
5 8.33 Ov 2.5 1.58
6+ 22.73 Un 2.5 2.72
Gg 1.63 Ov 3.5 2.7
NoG 2.58 Un 3.5 1.59


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.95 3.62 2.12
2-3 goals 1.88 6.39 3.22
4+ goals 2.53 2.94 3.78
Ov 1.5 2.12 4.19 3.44
Un 1.5 3.95 3.62 2.12
Ov 2.5 1.98 5.02 3.38
Un 2.5 3.2 3.09 2.75
Ov 3.5 2.53 2.94 3.78
Un 3.5 2.19 5.29 2.83
Goal-Goal 2.29 3.09 4.16
No Goal 2.32 8.26 2.23
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.02 4.29 3.67
NG+Un 2.5 2.57 8.26 2.21



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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