Hoffenheim Vs Hertha

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.68 4.03 4.87 1.66 2.27
Estim 1.74 4.29 5.18 1.71 2.4
Value % -2.05 -1.5 -1.23 -1.76 -2.39



Basic Data and latest results


Hoffenheim basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 3 0
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 3 3 1




Hoffenheim latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Bayern Munich A 0 4 L O Ng
15 Oct FC Koln H 5 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Stuttgart A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Wolfsburg H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bielefeld A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Mainz H 0 2 L U Ng
27 Aug Dortmund A 2 3 L O Gg
22 Aug Union Berlin H 2 2 D O Gg



Hertha basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 0 3 40 3 5 5 0




Hertha latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct M’gladbach H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Ein Frankfurt A 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Freiburg H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep RB Leipzig A 0 6 L O Ng
17 Sep Greuther Furth H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Bochum A 3 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Bayern Munich A 0 5 L O Ng
21 Aug Wolfsburg H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Hoffenheim is -0.202 and for the Hertha is 0.333.
  • The home dynamic for the Hoffenheim is 0.214 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hertha is -0.117.
  • The offensive ability for the Hoffenheim is -0.13 and for the Hertha is 0.631.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Hoffenheim is -0.053 and for the Hertha is -0.533.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Hoffenheim 14% 28% 23% 34%
Hertha 33% 40% 18% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.97 goals and Hertha to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.77 goals and Hertha to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 20.83 0-1 5
1 6.58 2-3 2.07
2 4.65 4+ 3.17
3 3.72 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 4.9 Un 1.5 5
5 12.35 Ov 2.5 1.71
6+ 33.33 Un 2.5 2.41
Gg 1.75 Ov 3.5 3.17
NoG 2.34 Un 3.5 1.46


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.13 4.17 3.45
2-3 goals 1.73 4.25 5.38
4+ goals 1.58 4.44 7
Ov 1.5 1.67 4.32 5.92
Un 1.5 2.13 4.17 3.45
Ov 2.5 1.45 8.23 5.36
Un 2.5 2.46 2.56 4.94
Ov 3.5 1.58 4.44 7
Un 3.5 1.83 4.22 4.62
Goal-Goal 1.97 3.09 5.95
No Goal 1.51 8.92 4.41
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.58 6.44 4.76
NG+Un 2.5 1.78 8.92 3.58



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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