Huddersfield Vs Millwall

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Millwall for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.55 3.15 2.92 2.34 1.61
Estim 2.23 3.69 3.57 2.14 1.88
Value % 5.63 -4.65 -6.24 3.99 -8.92



Basic Data and latest results


Huddersfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 2 3 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 1 1 2
At Home 4 1 2 62 5 3 3 4




Huddersfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Bournemouth A 0 3 L O Ng
20 Oct Birmingham H 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Hull H 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Luton A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Sep Blackburn H 3 2 W O Gg
25 Sep Swansea A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Nott’m Forest H 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Blackpool A 3 0 W O Ng



Millwall basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 4 1 48 6 5 2 5




Millwall latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Stoke H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Sheffield United A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Luton H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Barnsley A 1 0 W U Ng
29 Sep Bristol City H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Nott’m Forest A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Coventry H 1 1 D U Gg
15 Sep Swansea A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Huddersfield is -0.026 and for the Millwall is 0.519.
  • The home dynamic for the Huddersfield is 0.068 and the dynamic as a guest for the Millwall is 0.064.
  • The offensive ability for the Huddersfield is -0.591 and for the Millwall is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Huddersfield is 0.474 and for the Millwall is -0.269.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Huddersfield 23% 34% 24% 18%
Millwall 33% 38% 18% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.15 goals and Millwall to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.38 goals and Millwall to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Huddersfield to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.56
1 4.93 2-3 2.03
2 3.95 4+ 4.37
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.67 Un 1.5 3.56
5 16.95 Ov 2.5 2.13
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.37
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.49 3.6 3.12
2-3 goals 2.11 3.76 3.85
4+ goals 2.22 3.63 3.63
Ov 1.5 2.14 3.72 3.78
Un 1.5 2.49 3.6 3.12
Ov 2.5 1.82 7.44 3.15
Un 2.5 2.77 2.56 4.05
Ov 3.5 2.22 3.63 3.63
Un 3.5 2.23 3.7 3.55
Goal-Goal 2.62 2.65 4.15
No Goal 1.93 6.27 3.11
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.95 6.08 3.09
NG+Un 2.5 2.09 6.27 3.05



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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