Lamia Vs Atromitos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lamia and Atromitos for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.36 3.02 3.17 2.6 1.5
Estim 2.28 3.88 3.3 2.21 1.82
Value % 1.49 -7.34 -1.24 6.79 -11.72



Basic Data and latest results


Lamia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1




Lamia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct OFI Crete A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Oct Aris H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Ionikos A 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Panetolikos H 2 2 D O Gg
22 Sep AEK A 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep Olympiakos H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Volos NFC A 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Atromitos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 3 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Away 0 1 2 11 0 2 2 1




Atromitos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Ionikos H 0 2 L U Ng
17 Oct AEK A 0 3 L O Ng
03 Oct Giannina H 1 1 D U Gg
27 Sep Aris H 1 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Volos NFC A 0 3 L O Ng
19 Sep Panetolikos H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Olympiakos A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lamia is -0.36 and for the Atromitos is -0.83.
  • The home dynamic for the Lamia is -0.795 and the dynamic as a guest for the Atromitos is -0.608.
  • The offensive ability for the Lamia is -0.243 and for the Atromitos is -0.227.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lamia is -0.442 and for the Atromitos is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lamia 35% 22% 17% 26%
Atromitos 36% 33% 25% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.12 goals and Atromitos to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.33 goals and Atromitos to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Lamia to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.87 0-1 3.08
1 5.05 2-3 2.24
2 4.48 4+ 4.42
3 4.46 Ov 1.5 1.49
4 7.19 Un 1.5 3.08
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.43 Ov 3.5 4.42
NoG 1.71 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.06 2.56 2.75
2-3 goals 2.14 6.04 2.73
4+ goals 1.52 4.04 10.76
Ov 1.5 1.88 5.18 3.64
Un 1.5 4.06 2.56 2.75
Ov 2.5 1.52 8.04 4.64
Un 2.5 3.89 2.73 2.66
Ov 3.5 1.52 4.04 10.76
Un 3.5 2.67 3.84 2.74
Goal-Goal 2.01 3.17 5.35
No Goal 2.52 4.61 2.59
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.65 6.04 4.39
NG+Un 2.5 3.36 4.61 2.3



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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