Leicester Vs Arsenal

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Leicester and Arsenal for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.48 3.5 2.91 1.83 2.05
Estim 1.99 3.75 4.35 2.17 1.85
Value % 9.93 -1.9 -11.38 -8.56 5.27



Basic Data and latest results


Leicester basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 5 1
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 3 2 2




Leicester latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Brentford A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Man United H 4 2 W O Gg
03 Oct Crystal Palace A 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Burnley H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Brighton A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Man City H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Norwich A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Aug West Ham A 1 4 L O Gg



Arsenal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 5 3 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 1 2 1 3




Arsenal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Aston Villa H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Oct Crystal Palace H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Brighton A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Tottenham H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Burnley A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Norwich H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Man City A 0 5 L O Ng
22 Aug Chelsea H 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Leicester is 0.105 and for the Arsenal is 0.644.
  • The home dynamic for the Leicester is 0.162 and the dynamic as a guest for the Arsenal is -0.17.
  • The offensive ability for the Leicester is 0.678 and for the Arsenal is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Leicester is -1 and for the Arsenal is 0.084.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Leicester 18% 40% 20% 22%
Arsenal 38% 36% 17% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.4 goals and Arsenal to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.46 goals and Arsenal to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Leicester to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 3.51
1 4.61 2-3 2.02
2 3.94 4+ 4.55
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.51
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.17
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 4.55
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.88 4.19 4.38
2-3 goals 2.1 3.38 4.37
4+ goals 1.9 4.15 4.31
Ov 1.5 2.03 3.59 4.35
Un 1.5 1.88 4.19 4.38
Ov 2.5 1.68 8.68 3.43
Un 2.5 2.34 2.52 5.67
Ov 3.5 1.9 4.15 4.31
Un 3.5 2.01 3.64 4.38
Goal-Goal 2.67 2.55 4.27
No Goal 1.57 7.22 4.46
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.91 6.83 3.04
NG+Un 2.5 1.71 7.22 4.14



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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