Lugo Vs Sp Gijon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lugo and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.85 2.97 2.6 2.59 1.48
Estim 2.14 3.65 3.86 2.29 1.78
Value % 11.64 -6.27 -12.55 5.06 -11.39



Basic Data and latest results


Lugo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 0 6
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3
At Home 3 2 1 61 4 3 1 5




Lugo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Oct Las Palmas H 2 0 W U Ng
17 Oct Burgos A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Girona H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Leganes A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Cartagena A 1 2 L O Gg
13 Sep Huesca H 3 2 W O Gg



Sp Gijon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 3 2 33 4 5 2 4




Sp Gijon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Valladolid H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Cartagena A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Alcorcon H 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Oviedo A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Amorebieta A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Malaga H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Eibar A 2 3 L O Gg
10 Sep Leganes H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lugo is 0.167 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.074.
  • The home dynamic for the Lugo is 0.12 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Gijon is -0.192.
  • The offensive ability for the Lugo is 0.539 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.571.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lugo is -0.021 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.586.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lugo 23% 35% 26% 16%
Sp Gijon 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 0.98 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.35 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Lugo to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.76 0-1 3.36
1 4.69 2-3 1.98
2 3.76 4+ 5
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.36
5 19.61 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.77
Gg 2.05 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 1.95 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.35 3.51 3.47
2-3 goals 2.02 3.94 3.97
4+ goals 2.17 3.28 4.26
Ov 1.5 2.06 3.72 4.05
Un 1.5 2.35 3.51 3.47
Ov 2.5 1.77 7.18 3.37
Un 2.5 2.55 2.65 4.34
Ov 3.5 2.17 3.28 4.26
Un 3.5 2.13 3.77 3.77
Goal-Goal 2.61 2.58 4.36
No Goal 1.83 6.05 3.47
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.93 5.9 3.21
NG+Un 2.5 1.97 6.05 3.35



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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