Lyon Vs Lens

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lyon and Lens for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.71 4.16 4.65 1.54 2.44
Estim 2.04 4 3.85 2.16 1.86
Value % -9.46 0.96 4.47 -18.64 12.78



Basic Data and latest results


Lyon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 3 3 0 67 6 5 3 3




Lyon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Nice A 2 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Monaco H 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct St Etienne A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Lorient H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Troyes H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Paris SG A 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Strasbourg H 3 1 W O Gg
27 Aug Nantes A 1 0 W U Ng



Lens basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 4 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Away 3 1 1 67 4 4 2 3




Lens latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Metz H 4 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Montpellier A 0 1 L U Ng
01 Oct Reims H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Marseille A 3 2 W O Gg
22 Sep Strasbourg H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Lille H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Bordeaux A 3 2 W O Gg
29 Aug Lorient H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lyon is -0.009 and for the Lens is 0.333.
  • The home dynamic for the Lyon is 0.274 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lens is 0.381.
  • The offensive ability for the Lyon is 1 and for the Lens is 0.227.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lyon is -0.474 and for the Lens is -0.269.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lyon 26% 20% 41% 12%
Lens 37% 36% 16% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lyon to score 2.07 goals and Lens to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.05 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lyon to score 1.4 goals and Lens to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.31 0-1 3.73
1 5.85 2-3 1.9
2 3.72 4+ 4.83
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 7.58 Un 1.5 3.73
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 2.16 Ov 3.5 4.83
NoG 1.87 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.53 2.76 2.82
2-3 goals 1.51 7 5.15
4+ goals 3.18 2.62 3.29
Ov 1.5 1.77 4.75 4.44
Un 1.5 3.53 2.76 2.82
Ov 2.5 1.77 5.86 3.76
Un 2.5 2.36 3.12 3.92
Ov 3.5 3.18 2.62 3.29
Un 3.5 1.87 4.61 4.03
Goal-Goal 2.17 3.01 4.83
No Goal 1.95 5.53 3.27
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.82 4.92 4.05
NG+Un 2.5 2.03 5.53 3.37



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *