Mansfield Vs Tranmere

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Mansfield and Tranmere for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.41 3.22 3 2.27 1.64
Estim 3.27 3.85 2.3 2.06 1.95
Value % -10.91 -5.08 10.14 4.49 -9.69



Basic Data and latest results


Mansfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 2 4 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 2 3 3 38 6 7 4 4




Mansfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Exeter A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Port Vale H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Northampton A 0 2 L U Ng
09 Oct Oldham H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Barrow H 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Leyton Orient A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Rochdale H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Walsall A 1 3 L O Gg



Tranmere basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 3 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 4 2 33 2 3 1 6




Tranmere latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Northampton H 0 2 L U Ng
19 Oct Harrogate A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Carlisle A 1 0 W U Ng
08 Oct Colchester H 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Crawley Town H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Forest Green A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Salford H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Rochdale A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Mansfield is -0.623 and for the Tranmere is 0.281.
  • The home dynamic for the Mansfield is -0.154 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tranmere is -0.102.
  • The offensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.452 and for the Tranmere is 0.227.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.158 and for the Tranmere is 0.119.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Mansfield 36% 28% 24% 13%
Tranmere 20% 38% 26% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.2 goals and Tranmere to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.14 goals and Tranmere to score 1.36 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.73
1 5.13 2-3 2.04
2 4.07 4+ 4.12
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.49 Un 1.5 3.73
5 14.49 Ov 2.5 2.06
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.95
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.12
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.7 3.67 1.94
2-3 goals 2.96 4.57 2.25
4+ goals 2.93 3 3.08
Ov 1.5 2.95 3.89 2.47
Un 1.5 4.7 3.67 1.94
Ov 2.5 2.43 6 2.37
Un 2.5 4.9 2.86 2.24
Ov 3.5 2.93 3 3.08
Un 3.5 3.41 4.21 2.13
Goal-Goal 2.94 2.72 3.41
No Goal 3.73 6.68 1.72
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.33 5 2.7
NG+Un 2.5 3.88 6.68 1.78



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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