Metz Vs St Etienne

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Metz and St Etienne for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.58 3.43 2.71 1.98 1.87
Estim 1.88 4.08 4.48 2.51 1.66
Value % 14.43 -4.64 -14.58 -10.66 6.77



Basic Data and latest results


Metz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 4 6 6 0
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 3 0
At Home 0 2 3 13 3 5 3 2




Metz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Lens A 1 4 L O Gg
17 Oct Rennes H 0 3 L O Ng
03 Oct Angers A 2 3 L O Gg
26 Sep Brest A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Paris SG H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Sep Strasbourg A 0 3 L O Ng
12 Sep Troyes H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Clermont A 2 2 D O Gg



St Etienne basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 5 6 5 1
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 1 4 7 4 5 4 1




St Etienne latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Angers H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Oct Strasbourg A 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Lyon H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Nice H 0 3 L O Ng
22 Sep Monaco A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Bordeaux H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Montpellier A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Marseille A 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Metz is -0.816 and for the St Etienne is -0.63.
  • The home dynamic for the Metz is -0.829 and the dynamic as a guest for the St Etienne is -0.796.
  • The offensive ability for the Metz is 0.243 and for the St Etienne is 0.631.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Metz is -1 and for the St Etienne is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Metz 27% 19% 42% 12%
St Etienne 50% 29% 10% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Metz to score 1.26 goals and St Etienne to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Metz to score 1.38 goals and St Etienne to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Metz to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.46 0-1 3.26
1 5.78 2-3 1.91
2 3.41 4+ 5.92
3 4.35 Ov 1.5 1.45
4 10.31 Un 1.5 3.26
5 16.95 Ov 2.5 2.51
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.67
Gg 2.73 Ov 3.5 5.92
NoG 1.58 Un 3.5 1.2


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.23 2.29 3.94
2-3 goals 1.33 9.51 6.88
4+ goals 3.76 3.02 2.49
Ov 1.5 1.58 6.23 4.81
Un 1.5 3.23 2.29 3.94
Ov 2.5 1.77 7.12 3.41
Un 2.5 1.96 3.17 5.71
Ov 3.5 3.76 3.02 2.49
Un 3.5 1.7 4.39 5.39
Goal-Goal 2.18 3.3 4.21
No Goal 1.74 4.72 4.69
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.85 5.55 3.57
NG+Un 2.5 1.78 4.72 5.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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