Newport County Vs Stevenage

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Newport County and Stevenage for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.97 3.39 3.89 2.27 1.66
Estim 2.25 3.73 3.48 2.07 1.94
Value % -6.32 -2.69 3.03 4.26 -8.69



Basic Data and latest results


Newport County basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 5 1
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 3 1 50 4 4 4 2




Newport County latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Bristol Rvs A 3 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Carlisle H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Exeter A 2 2 D O Gg
09 Oct Bradford H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Scunthorpe H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Sep Barrow A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Walsall H 2 1 W O Gg
14 Sep Northampton H 0 1 L U Ng



Stevenage basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 2 3 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 0 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 5 19 3 5 4 3




Stevenage latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Leyton Orient H 0 0 D U Ng
19 Oct Northampton A 0 3 L O Ng
16 Oct Oldham A 0 3 L O Ng
09 Oct Exeter H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Hartlepool H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Harrogate A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Forest Green H 0 4 L O Ng
11 Sep Sutton A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Newport County is 0.237 and for the Stevenage is -0.207.
  • The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.103 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stevenage is -0.457.
  • The offensive ability for the Newport County is 0.626 and for the Stevenage is -0.605.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is -0.126 and for the Stevenage is 0.145.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Newport County 23% 33% 26% 18%
Stevenage 32% 37% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.39 goals and Stevenage to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.39 goals and Stevenage to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.8
1 5.26 2-3 2.01
2 3.97 4+ 4.2
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.49 Un 1.5 3.8
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 1.91 Ov 3.5 4.2
NoG 2.11 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.48 3.6 3.13
2-3 goals 2.09 4.12 3.58
4+ goals 2.33 3.26 3.78
Ov 1.5 2.16 3.79 3.64
Un 1.5 2.48 3.6 3.13
Ov 2.5 1.89 6.63 3.12
Un 2.5 2.71 2.65 3.93
Ov 3.5 2.33 3.26 3.78
Un 3.5 2.21 3.92 3.41
Goal-Goal 2.63 2.7 4
No Goal 1.92 6.51 3.06
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.03 5.52 3.08
NG+Un 2.5 2.07 6.51 3.01



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *