Norwich Vs Leeds

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Norwich and Leeds for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.47 3.61 2.12 1.79 2.08
Estim 3.04 3.89 2.42 1.93 2.08
Value % 4.08 -1.99 -5.85 -4.05 0



Basic Data and latest results


Norwich basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 1 4 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 0 1 1 2
At Home 0 1 3 8 2 3 3 1




Norwich latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Chelsea A 0 7 L O Ng
16 Oct Brighton H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Burnley A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Everton A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Watford H 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Arsenal A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Leicester H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Man City A 0 5 L O Ng



Leeds basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3
At Away 0 2 2 17 3 4 1 3




Leeds latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Wolves H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Southampton A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Watford H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep West Ham H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Sep Newcastle A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Liverpool H 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Burnley A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Everton H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Norwich is -0.772 and for the Leeds is -0.311.
  • The home dynamic for the Norwich is -0.88 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leeds is -0.449.
  • The offensive ability for the Norwich is -1 and for the Leeds is 0.253.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Norwich is 0.021 and for the Leeds is -0.586.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Norwich 32% 26% 31% 11%
Leeds 24% 32% 23% 20%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.11 goals and Leeds to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Leeds to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.21 goals and Leeds to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 4.07
1 5.99 2-3 2.06
2 4.27 4+ 3.73
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.29 Un 1.5 4.07
5 11.49 Ov 2.5 1.93
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2.08
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 3.73
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.9 3.11 2.37
2-3 goals 2.38 5.84 2.45
4+ goals 4.32 2.82 2.41
Ov 1.5 2.83 4.23 2.44
Un 1.5 3.9 3.11 2.37
Ov 2.5 2.73 5.46 2.22
Un 2.5 3.45 2.96 2.68
Ov 3.5 4.32 2.82 2.41
Un 3.5 2.74 4.51 2.42
Goal-Goal 3.14 2.88 2.99
No Goal 2.93 6.16 2.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.63 4.52 2.51
NG+Un 2.5 2.86 6.16 2.22



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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