Oldham Vs Swindon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Oldham and Swindon for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.07 3.32 2.29 2.1 1.74
Estim 3.27 3.7 2.36 2.18 1.85
Value % -1.99 -3.09 -1.3 -1.75 -3.42



Basic Data and latest results


Oldham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 2 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 2 1
At Home 1 1 5 19 4 5 5 2




Oldham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Carlisle A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Oct Walsall H 1 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Stevenage H 3 0 W O Ng
09 Oct Mansfield A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Harrogate H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Rochdale A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Hartlepool H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Leyton Orient A 0 4 L O Ng



Swindon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0
At Away 5 2 0 81 7 5 3 4




Swindon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Bradford H 1 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Sutton A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Rochdale H 2 2 D O Gg
09 Oct Forest Green A 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Bristol Rvs A 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Colchester H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Northampton A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Port Vale H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Oldham is -0.035 and for the Swindon is 0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Oldham is -0.735 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swindon is 0.6.
  • The offensive ability for the Oldham is 0.157 and for the Swindon is 0.682.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Oldham is 0.895 and for the Swindon is -0.295.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Oldham 35% 32% 21% 12%
Swindon 24% 36% 25% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.05 goals and Swindon to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.1 goals and Swindon to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.9 0-1 3.46
1 4.88 2-3 2.04
2 3.95 4+ 4.5
3 4.24 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 6.99 Un 1.5 3.46
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.5
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.75 3.44 2.26
2-3 goals 3.15 4.18 2.25
4+ goals 3 3.22 2.81
Ov 1.5 3.1 3.82 2.4
Un 1.5 3.75 3.44 2.26
Ov 2.5 2.56 6.64 2.18
Un 2.5 4.27 2.7 2.53
Ov 3.5 3 3.22 2.81
Un 3.5 3.35 3.87 2.26
Goal-Goal 3.29 2.66 3.13
No Goal 3.24 6.02 1.9
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.51 5.46 2.39
NG+Un 2.5 3.35 6.02 1.99



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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