Oviedo Vs Malaga

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Oviedo and Malaga for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.26 3.01 3.52 2.63 1.48
Estim 1.96 3.82 4.39 2.18 1.85
Value % 6.77 -7.04 -5.63 7.85 -13.51



Basic Data and latest results


Oviedo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 4 4 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Home 1 4 1 39 4 3 2 4




Oviedo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Ponferradina A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Burgos H 1 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Sociedad B A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Zaragoza A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Girona H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Ibiza A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Cartagena H 2 0 W U Ng



Malaga basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 3 1 5
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 0 3
At Away 0 3 3 17 3 5 3 3




Malaga latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Lugo H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Huesca A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
08 Oct Valladolid A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Fuenlabrada H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Ponferradina A 0 4 L O Ng
12 Sep Girona H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Oviedo is 0.009 and for the Malaga is 0.207.
  • The home dynamic for the Oviedo is 0.077 and the dynamic as a guest for the Malaga is -0.472.
  • The offensive ability for the Oviedo is 0.33 and for the Malaga is 0.571.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Oviedo is -0.189 and for the Malaga is 0.26.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Oviedo 20% 34% 27% 19%
Malaga 38% 36% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.16 goals and Malaga to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.46 goals and Malaga to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.6
1 4.93 2-3 1.96
2 3.8 4+ 4.72
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.6
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.72
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.12 3.71 3.86
2-3 goals 1.87 4.07 4.54
4+ goals 2 3.42 4.82
Ov 1.5 1.91 3.86 4.62
Un 1.5 2.12 3.71 3.86
Ov 2.5 1.66 7.39 3.82
Un 2.5 2.32 2.7 5.01
Ov 3.5 2 3.42 4.82
Un 3.5 1.95 3.93 4.28
Goal-Goal 2.45 2.65 4.67
No Goal 1.64 6.72 4.13
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.83 5.97 3.49
NG+Un 2.5 1.79 6.72 3.85



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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