Panathinaikos Vs OFI Crete

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.63 3.81 5.29 2.11 1.75
Estim 2 3.66 4.39 2.36 1.74
Value % -11.35 1.08 3.88 -5.02 0.33



Basic Data and latest results


Panathinaikos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 3 0




Panathinaikos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Asteras Tripolis A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Ionikos H 4 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Olympiakos A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Volos NFC H 5 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Aris A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Giannina A 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Apollon H 4 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



OFI Crete basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2




OFI Crete latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Lamia H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Panetolikos A 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct PAOK H 1 3 L O Gg
27 Sep Giannina A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Asteras Tripolis H 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep AEK H 3 3 D O Gg
13 Sep Aris A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Panathinaikos is -0.167 and for the OFI Crete is 0.015.
  • The home dynamic for the Panathinaikos is 0.915 and the dynamic as a guest for the OFI Crete is 0.343.
  • The offensive ability for the Panathinaikos is -0.07 and for the OFI Crete is 0.202.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Panathinaikos is -0.505 and for the OFI Crete is -0.181.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Panathinaikos 18% 42% 24% 16%
OFI Crete 40% 34% 23% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.65 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.38 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 3.37
1 4.42 2-3 1.9
2 3.58 4+ 5.68
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 8 Un 1.5 3.37
5 22.22 Ov 2.5 2.36
6+ 166.67 Un 2.5 1.74
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 5.68
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.78 4.18 5.03
2-3 goals 2.18 3.73 3.65
4+ goals 1.98 2.84 7.04
Ov 1.5 2.13 3.46 4.15
Un 1.5 1.78 4.18 5.03
Ov 2.5 1.82 6.82 3.3
Un 2.5 2.18 2.72 5.76
Ov 3.5 1.98 2.84 7.04
Un 3.5 2.02 3.88 4.05
Goal-Goal 2.91 2.43 4.08
No Goal 1.54 7.11 4.72
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.69 2.92
NG+Un 2.5 1.65 7.11 4.35



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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