Panetolikos Vs Olympiakos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 7.15 4.39 1.44 1.92 1.92
Estim 1.41 1.66 -3.22 -125 0.99
Value % 56.94 37.46 -100.5 -52.88 48.93



Basic Data and latest results


Panetolikos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 6 6 6 0
Last 3 0 0 3 0 3 3 3 0
At Home 0 1 3 8 3 3 3 1




Panetolikos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Aris A 1 5 L O Gg
17 Oct OFI Crete H 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct AEK H 1 3 L O Gg
26 Sep Lamia A 2 2 D O Gg
22 Sep PAOK H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Atromitos A 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Asteras Tripolis H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Olympiakos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 2 2 1
At Away 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1




Olympiakos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct PAOK H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Giannina A 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Panathinaikos H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Asteras Tripolis A 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Apollon H 4 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Lamia A 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Atromitos H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Panetolikos is -0.684 and for the Olympiakos is 0.83.
  • The home dynamic for the Panetolikos is -0.949 and the dynamic as a guest for the Olympiakos is 0.925.
  • The offensive ability for the Panetolikos is 1 and for the Olympiakos is 0.597.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Panetolikos is -1 and for the Olympiakos is -0.207.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Panetolikos 45% 53% -6% 8%
Olympiakos 134% -6% -38% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 0.61 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 1.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 0.65 goals and Olympiakos to score -0.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 0.12 goals in the game and the home team Panetolikos to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 1.66 0-1 0.77
1 1.45 2-3 -2.99
2 -3.52 4+ 23.81
3 -20 Ov 1.5 -3.42
4 14.29 Un 1.5 0.77
5 -27.78 Ov 2.5 -125
6+ 125 Un 2.5 0.99
Gg -5.26 Ov 3.5 23.81
NoG 0.84 Un 3.5 1.04


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.8 2.15 -49.69
2-3 goals -11.93 10.77 1.01
4+ goals -1.2 1.35 0.91
Ov 1.5 41.71 -Inf 1.02
Un 1.5 1.8 2.15 -49.69
Ov 2.5 -0.11 -0.26 0.07
Un 2.5 1.59 1.77 -5.12
Ov 3.5 -1.2 1.35 0.91
Un 3.5 1.29 1.68 -2.68
Goal-Goal 5.94 -Inf 1.2
No Goal 1.6 1.98 -7.78
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.97 -5.13 1.01
NG+Un 2.5 1.64 1.98 -5.27



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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