PAOK Vs Apollon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between PAOK and Apollon for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.19 6.63 12.6 1.58 2.31
Estim 1.6 4.1 7.58 2.42 1.7
Value % -21.53 9.31 5.26 -21.97 15.53



Basic Data and latest results


PAOK basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2




PAOK latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Olympiakos A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Volos NFC H 4 4 D O Gg
03 Oct OFI Crete A 3 1 W O Gg
26 Sep AEK H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Panetolikos A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Asteras Tripolis A 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Giannina H 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Apollon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 3 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 1 0 3
At Away 0 1 2 11 1 2 2 1




Apollon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Giannina H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Asteras Tripolis H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Aris A 0 0 D U Ng
27 Sep Ionikos H 0 0 D U Ng
22 Sep Olympiakos A 1 4 L O Gg
19 Sep Volos NFC H 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Panathinaikos A 0 4 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the PAOK is 0.491 and for the Apollon is -0.274.
  • The home dynamic for the PAOK is -0.085 and the dynamic as a guest for the Apollon is -0.562.
  • The offensive ability for the PAOK is 1 and for the Apollon is -0.202.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the PAOK is -0.158 and for the Apollon is 0.26.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
PAOK 10% 48% 17% 25%
Apollon 50% 34% 12% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 2.53 goals and Apollon to score 0.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 2.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.57 goals and Apollon to score 0.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 20 0-1 3.08
1 3.64 2-3 1.98
2 3.83 4+ 5.95
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 8.13 Un 1.5 3.08
5 27.78 Ov 2.5 2.42
6+ 111.11 Un 2.5 1.71
Gg 2.23 Ov 3.5 5.95
NoG 1.81 Un 3.5 1.2


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.35 6.5 9.56
2-3 goals 1.89 3.09 6.84
4+ goals 1.46 5.79 7
Ov 1.5 1.76 3.49 6.88
Un 1.5 1.35 6.5 9.56
Ov 2.5 1.39 14.24 4.8
Un 2.5 1.8 2.74 12.74
Ov 3.5 1.46 5.79 7
Un 3.5 1.63 3.88 7.69
Goal-Goal 2.59 2.32 5.46
No Goal 1.22 11.02 11.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.64 9.79 3.46
NG+Un 2.5 1.29 11.02 9.17



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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