PSV Eindhoven Vs Twente

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.33 5.41 8.65 1.54 2.44
Estim 2.26 3.58 3.58 2.07 1.94
Value % -30.94 9.45 16.37 -16.63 10.56



Basic Data and latest results


PSV Eindhoven basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 6 6 0
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Home 4 0 1 80 4 5 5 0




PSV Eindhoven latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Ajax A 0 5 L O Ng
16 Oct Zwolle H 3 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Sparta Rotterdam H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Willem II A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Go Ahead Eagles A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Feyenoord H 0 4 L O Ng
11 Sep AZ Alkmaar A 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Groningen H 5 2 W O Gg



Twente basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Away 2 1 2 47 4 5 3 2




Twente latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Nijmegen H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Willem II H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Groningen A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Heerenveen A 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep AZ Alkmaar H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Vitesse A 4 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Utrecht H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Cambuur A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.009 and for the Twente is 0.244.
  • The home dynamic for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.556 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is 0.079.
  • The offensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.217 and for the Twente is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is -1 and for the Twente is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
PSV Eindhoven 23% 34% 23% 20%
Twente 26% 48% 17% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 2.45 goals and Twente to score 0.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.05 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.41 goals and Twente to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.95 0-1 3.92
1 5.1 2-3 1.99
2 3.83 4+ 4.12
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 5.95 Un 1.5 3.92
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 1.75 Ov 3.5 4.12
NoG 2.34 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.9 4.32 2.36
2-3 goals 2.26 3.1 4.25
4+ goals 1.87 4.12 4.5
Ov 1.5 2.12 3.37 4.33
Un 1.5 2.9 4.32 2.36
Ov 2.5 1.66 8.2 3.64
Un 2.5 3.49 2.33 3.51
Ov 3.5 1.87 4.12 4.5
Un 3.5 2.44 3.43 3.35
Goal-Goal 2.39 2.59 5.12
No Goal 2.13 7.24 2.54
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.71 6.97 3.67
NG+Un 2.5 2.39 7.24 2.41



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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