Sociedad Vs Ath Bilbao

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sociedad and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.13 3.24 3.94 2.27 1.7
Estim 1.63 4.57 6.02 1.89 2.12
Value % 14.4 -8.98 -8.77 8.86 -11.65



Basic Data and latest results


Sociedad basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Home 4 1 0 87 4 0 0 5




Sociedad latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Oct Celta A 2 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Ath Madrid A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Mallorca H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Getafe A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Elche H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Granada A 3 2 W O Gg
19 Sep Sevilla H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Cadiz A 2 0 W U Ng



Ath Bilbao basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 4 0 47 3 2 0 5




Ath Bilbao latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Espanol A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Villarreal H 2 1 W O Gg
01 Oct Alaves H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Valencia A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Vallecano H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Ath Madrid A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Mallorca H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Celta A 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sociedad is 0.763 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.207.
  • The home dynamic for the Sociedad is 0.778 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Bilbao is 0.2.
  • The offensive ability for the Sociedad is 1 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.682.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sociedad is 0.474 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.269.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sociedad 20% 23% 23% 34%
Ath Bilbao 38% 44% 16% 1%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.37 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.72 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.16 0-1 3.98
1 5.71 2-3 2.03
2 4.52 4+ 3.91
3 3.68 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 5.21 Un 1.5 3.98
5 16.95 Ov 2.5 1.89
6+ 200 Un 2.5 2.12
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 3.91
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.89 3.3 2.85
2-3 goals 1.55 4.83 6.85
4+ goals 1.23 6.1 42.67
Ov 1.5 1.42 5.2 9.6
Un 1.5 2.89 3.3 2.85
Ov 2.5 1.2 12.57 11.48
Un 2.5 2.71 2.65 3.93
Ov 3.5 1.23 6.1 42.67
Un 3.5 1.83 4.18 4.65
Goal-Goal 1.61 3.44 11.53
No Goal 1.65 6.63 4.1
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.28 9.38 9.16
NG+Un 2.5 2.13 6.63 3.08



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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