Sp Lisbon Vs Guimaraes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.5 4.1 6 1.82 1.96
Estim 1.47 5.13 7.87 1.89 2.13
Value % 1.36 -4.9 -3.96 -2.04 -4.07



Basic Data and latest results


Sp Lisbon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 3 1 5
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Home 4 1 0 87 5 1 1 4




Sp Lisbon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Moreirense H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Arouca A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Maritimo H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Estoril A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Porto H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Famalicao A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Belenenses H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Sp Braga A 2 1 W O Gg



Guimaraes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 3 0 50 2 2 2 2




Guimaraes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Maritimo H 2 1 W O Gg
01 Oct Famalicao A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Benfica H 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Arouca A 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Belenenses H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Sp Braga A 0 0 D U Ng
22 Aug Vizela H 4 0 W O Ng
13 Aug Estoril A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sp Lisbon is 0.842 and for the Guimaraes is 0.207.
  • The home dynamic for the Sp Lisbon is 0.778 and the dynamic as a guest for the Guimaraes is 0.283.
  • The offensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 1 and for the Guimaraes is 0.339.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 0.505 and for the Guimaraes is -0.322.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sp Lisbon 10% 30% 28% 32%
Guimaraes 51% 27% 19% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.92 goals and Guimaraes to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.82 goals and Guimaraes to score 0.76 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 19.61 0-1 4.35
1 5.59 2-3 1.86
2 4.15 4+ 4.31
3 3.36 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.71 Un 1.5 4.35
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 1.89
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 2.12
Gg 2.26 Ov 3.5 4.31
NoG 1.79 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.51 4.51 8.52
2-3 goals 1.41 6.82 6.82
4+ goals 1.6 3.57 10.55
Ov 1.5 1.47 5.35 7.63
Un 1.5 1.51 4.51 8.52
Ov 2.5 1.38 8.15 6.46
Un 2.5 1.6 3.62 10.24
Ov 3.5 1.6 3.57 10.55
Un 3.5 1.44 5.92 7.25
Goal-Goal 2.01 3.07 5.67
No Goal 1.22 10.96 11.18
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.65 5.58 4.65
NG+Un 2.5 1.33 10.96 8.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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