Tenerife Vs Burgos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Tenerife and Burgos for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.83 3.2 4.78 2.64 1.5
Estim 2.07 3.7 4.03 2.25 1.8
Value % -6.34 -4.22 3.89 6.57 -11.11



Basic Data and latest results


Tenerife basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 6 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 1 2 47 3 3 2 3




Tenerife latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Leganes A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Eibar H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
10 Oct Amorebieta H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Huesca A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Almeria A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Mirandes H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Valladolid A 2 0 W U Ng



Burgos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 5 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 2 3 28 2 5 2 4




Burgos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Huesca H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Oviedo A 3 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
10 Oct Alcorcon A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Mirandes H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Ibiza A 0 2 L U Ng
20 Sep Las Palmas H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Amorebieta A 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Tenerife is 0.009 and for the Burgos is 0.237.
  • The home dynamic for the Tenerife is -0.145 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burgos is -0.283.
  • The offensive ability for the Tenerife is 0.565 and for the Burgos is 0.313.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Tenerife is -1 and for the Burgos is -0.648.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Tenerife 22% 34% 26% 17%
Burgos 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.33 goals and Burgos to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.39 goals and Burgos to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.35 0-1 3.45
1 4.78 2-3 1.97
2 3.77 4+ 4.93
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.25 Un 1.5 3.45
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.25
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 4.93
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.27 3.58 3.58
2-3 goals 1.97 3.99 4.16
4+ goals 2.11 3.33 4.41
Ov 1.5 2.01 3.78 4.23
Un 1.5 2.27 3.58 3.58
Ov 2.5 1.73 7.3 3.5
Un 2.5 2.47 2.67 4.55
Ov 3.5 2.11 3.33 4.41
Un 3.5 2.06 3.83 3.93
Goal-Goal 2.55 2.61 4.45
No Goal 1.76 6.3 3.67
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.89 5.95 3.3
NG+Un 2.5 1.9 6.3 3.51



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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