Torino Vs Sampdoria

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Torino and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.01 3.68 3.69 1.75 2.13
Estim 2.32 3.82 3.25 1.96 2.04
Value % -6.65 -1 3.67 -6.12 2.07



Basic Data and latest results


Torino basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 6 1 5
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2
At Home 2 1 2 47 4 4 3 2




Torino latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Milan A 0 1 L U Ng
22 Oct Genoa H 3 2 W O Gg
17 Oct Napoli A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Juventus H 0 1 L U Ng
27 Sep Venezia A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Sep Lazio H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Sassuolo A 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Salernitana H 4 0 W O Ng



Sampdoria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 6 6 0
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 1 2 33 3 2 3 1




Sampdoria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Oct Atalanta H 1 3 L O Gg
22 Oct Spezia H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Cagliari A 1 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Udinese H 3 3 D O Gg
26 Sep Juventus A 2 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Napoli H 0 4 L O Ng
19 Sep Empoli A 3 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Inter H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Torino is -0.421 and for the Sampdoria is -0.467.
  • The home dynamic for the Torino is -0.077 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sampdoria is -0.268.
  • The offensive ability for the Torino is -0.243 and for the Sampdoria is 0.682.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Torino is -1 and for the Sampdoria is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Torino 27% 23% 34% 16%
Sampdoria 34% 29% 25% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.67 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Torino to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.4 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.11 0-1 4.1
1 6.49 2-3 2.04
2 4.05 4+ 3.76
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 6.21 Un 1.5 4.1
5 11.9 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 2.05 Ov 3.5 3.76
NoG 1.95 Un 3.5 1.36


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.13 2.71 3.21
2-3 goals 1.86 7.42 3.06
4+ goals 2.99 2.51 3.75
Ov 1.5 2.14 4.4 3.27
Un 1.5 3.13 2.71 3.21
Ov 2.5 2.12 4.8 3.12
Un 2.5 2.57 3.15 3.41
Ov 3.5 2.99 2.51 3.75
Un 3.5 2.15 4.71 3.11
Goal-Goal 2.63 2.83 3.75
No Goal 2.09 5.7 2.9
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.28 3.97 3.24
NG+Un 2.5 2.23 5.7 2.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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