Tottenham Vs Man United

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Tottenham and Man United for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.94 3.59 2.39 1.77 2.12
Estim 2.29 4.08 3.15 1.79 2.27
Value % 9.65 -3.35 -10.09 -0.63 -3.12



Basic Data and latest results


Tottenham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 6 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 0 1 75 3 2 2 2




Tottenham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct West Ham A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Newcastle A 3 2 W O Gg
03 Oct Aston Villa H 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Arsenal A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Chelsea H 0 3 L O Ng
11 Sep Crystal Palace A 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Watford H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Wolves A 1 0 W U Ng



Man United basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 1 58 4 3 2 2




Man United latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Oct Liverpool H 0 5 L O Ng
16 Oct Leicester A 2 4 L O Gg
02 Oct Everton H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Aston Villa H 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep West Ham A 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Newcastle H 4 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Wolves A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Southampton A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Tottenham is -0.342 and for the Man United is -0.259.
  • The home dynamic for the Tottenham is 0.402 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man United is 0.23.
  • The offensive ability for the Tottenham is -0.13 and for the Man United is 0.167.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Tottenham is -1 and for the Man United is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Tottenham 28% 18% 33% 21%
Man United 28% 34% 22% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.26 goals and Man United to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.48 goals and Man United to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 4.44
1 6.85 2-3 2.12
2 4.65 4+ 3.28
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.29
4 5.78 Un 1.5 4.44
5 10.2 Ov 2.5 1.78
6+ 29.41 Un 2.5 2.27
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.28
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.44


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.33 2.85 2.39
2-3 goals 1.76 7.6 3.32
4+ goals 2.56 2.9 3.77
Ov 1.5 2.01 4.65 3.48
Un 1.5 4.33 2.85 2.39
Ov 2.5 1.92 5.34 3.42
Un 2.5 3.01 3.12 2.88
Ov 3.5 2.56 2.9 3.77
Un 3.5 2.18 4.94 2.95
Goal-Goal 2.24 3.1 4.32
No Goal 2.33 6.11 2.45
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.97 4.34 3.8
NG+Un 2.5 2.59 6.11 2.47



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *