Utrecht Vs Willem II

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Utrecht and Willem II for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.38 4.9 7.87 1.56 2.46
Estim 1.99 4.18 3.86 1.73 2.37
Value % -22.21 3.52 13.2 -6.3 1.54



Basic Data and latest results


Utrecht basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 4 1 0 87 5 4 5 0




Utrecht latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Heerenveen H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct AZ Alkmaar A 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Ajax A 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Zwolle H 5 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Nijmegen A 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Waalwijk H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Twente A 0 1 L U Ng
29 Aug Feyenoord H 3 1 W O Gg



Willem II basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Away 2 2 1 53 4 3 3 2




Willem II latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct For Sittard H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Twente A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Heracles A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep PSV Eindhoven H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Waalwijk A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Groningen H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Nijmegen A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Zwolle H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Utrecht is 0.579 and for the Willem II is 0.274.
  • The home dynamic for the Utrecht is 0.778 and the dynamic as a guest for the Willem II is 0.17.
  • The offensive ability for the Utrecht is 1 and for the Willem II is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Utrecht is -0.084 and for the Willem II is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Utrecht 21% 21% 32% 26%
Willem II 30% 37% 20% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Utrecht to score 2.38 goals and Willem II to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 1.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.62 goals and Willem II to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.87 0-1 4.85
1 6.99 2-3 2.07
2 4.61 4+ 3.21
3 3.77 Ov 1.5 1.26
4 5.35 Un 1.5 4.85
5 10.87 Ov 2.5 1.73
6+ 30.3 Un 2.5 2.36
Gg 1.81 Ov 3.5 3.21
NoG 2.23 Un 3.5 1.45


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.22 3.27 2.61
2-3 goals 1.65 6.1 4.34
4+ goals 2.12 3.25 4.52
Ov 1.5 1.81 4.54 4.41
Un 1.5 3.22 3.27 2.61
Ov 2.5 1.68 6.01 4.18
Un 2.5 2.64 2.98 3.5
Ov 3.5 2.12 3.25 4.52
Un 3.5 1.93 4.85 3.62
Goal-Goal 2.08 3.15 4.97
No Goal 1.89 7.11 3.03
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.78 4.93 4.26
NG+Un 2.5 2.15 7.11 2.84



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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