Valladolid Vs Eibar

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Valladolid and Eibar for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.29 3.18 3.16 2.22 1.68
Estim 2.32 3.55 3.48 2.4 1.72
Value % -0.56 -3.28 -2.91 -3.38 -1.38



Basic Data and latest results


Valladolid basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 6 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 2 1 53 4 3 0 5




Valladolid latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Sp Gijon A 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Ibiza H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Leganes A 2 0 W U Ng
08 Oct Malaga H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Ponferradina A 2 2 D O Gg
26 Sep Alcorcon H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Girona A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Tenerife H 0 2 L U Ng



Eibar basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 4 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Away 3 2 1 61 5 4 2 4




Eibar latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
22 Oct Cartagena H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Tenerife A 1 0 W U Ng
15 Oct Almeria H 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Mirandes A 3 3 D O Gg
03 Oct Ibiza H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Amorebieta A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Sp Gijon H 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Sociedad B A 3 2 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Valladolid is 0.588 and for the Eibar is 0.704.
  • The home dynamic for the Valladolid is 0.094 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eibar is 0.396.
  • The offensive ability for the Valladolid is 1 and for the Eibar is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -0.126 and for the Eibar is -0.145.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Valladolid 26% 35% 25% 14%
Eibar 36% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.26 goals and Eibar to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.26 goals and Eibar to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.75 0-1 3.17
1 4.5 2-3 2.01
2 3.73 4+ 5.32
3 4.35 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 7.81 Un 1.5 3.17
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.39
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 5.32
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.52 3.39 3.25
2-3 goals 2.18 3.86 3.53
4+ goals 2.41 3.13 3.76
Ov 1.5 2.24 3.63 3.59
Un 1.5 2.52 3.39 3.25
Ov 2.5 1.92 6.97 2.99
Un 2.5 2.74 2.63 3.94
Ov 3.5 2.41 3.13 3.76
Un 3.5 2.3 3.66 3.42
Goal-Goal 2.82 2.52 4.03
No Goal 2 5.65 3.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 5.78 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 2.13 5.65 3.07



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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