Vallecano Vs Celta

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Vallecano and Celta for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.4 3.34 3.07 2.09 1.79
Estim 1.82 4.1 4.81 1.98 2.02
Value % 13.28 -5.55 -11.78 2.66 -6.36



Basic Data and latest results


Vallecano basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 5 0 0 100 5 2 4 1




Vallecano latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Oct Barcelona H 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Betis A 2 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Elche H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Osasuna A 0 1 L U Ng
26 Sep Cadiz H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Ath Bilbao A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Getafe H 3 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Levante A 1 1 D U Gg



Celta basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 3 3 1 5
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2
At Away 2 1 2 47 3 2 2 3




Celta latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Oct Sociedad H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Oct Getafe A 3 0 W O Ng
17 Oct Sevilla H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Elche A 0 1 L U Ng
27 Sep Granada H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Sep Levante A 2 0 W U Ng
17 Sep Cadiz H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Real Madrid A 2 5 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Vallecano is 0.36 and for the Celta is -0.059.
  • The home dynamic for the Vallecano is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Celta is 0.049.
  • The offensive ability for the Vallecano is 0.626 and for the Celta is -0.227.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Vallecano is -0.442 and for the Celta is 0.119.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Vallecano 19% 31% 22% 28%
Celta 40% 35% 16% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.3 goals and Celta to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.59 goals and Celta to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.75
1 5.21 2-3 2.05
2 4.37 4+ 4.03
3 3.88 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.29 Un 1.5 3.75
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 2.02
Gg 2.06 Ov 3.5 4.03
NoG 1.94 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.1 3.56 4.11
2-3 goals 1.75 4.47 4.92
4+ goals 1.73 4.13 5.51
Ov 1.5 1.74 4.35 5.1
Un 1.5 2.1 3.56 4.11
Ov 2.5 1.52 8.43 4.48
Un 2.5 2.3 2.7 5.17
Ov 3.5 1.73 4.13 5.51
Un 3.5 1.86 4.1 4.6
Goal-Goal 2.21 2.88 5.01
No Goal 1.57 6.88 4.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.71 6.28 3.89
NG+Un 2.5 1.79 6.88 4.03



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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