Watford Vs Southampton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Watford and Southampton for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.15 3.39 2.36 1.89 1.96
Estim 2.95 3.92 2.46 1.89 2.12
Value % 2.15 -3.99 -1.72 0 -3.85



Basic Data and latest results


Watford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 2 1
At Home 1 1 2 33 2 4 2 2




Watford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Everton A 5 2 W O Gg
16 Oct Liverpool H 0 5 L O Ng
02 Oct Leeds A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Newcastle H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Norwich A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Wolves H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Tottenham A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Brighton A 0 2 L U Ng



Southampton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 3 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Away 0 2 2 17 3 3 3 1




Southampton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Burnley H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Leeds H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Chelsea A 1 3 L O Gg
26 Sep Wolves H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Man City A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep West Ham H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Newcastle A 2 2 D O Gg
22 Aug Man United H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Watford is -0.184 and for the Southampton is -0.148.
  • The home dynamic for the Watford is -0.427 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.449.
  • The offensive ability for the Watford is -0.157 and for the Southampton is -0.03.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Watford is -1 and for the Southampton is 0.119.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Watford 32% 24% 30% 14%
Southampton 24% 32% 23% 20%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.16 goals and Southampton to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.25 goals and Southampton to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 4.12
1 6.1 2-3 2.09
2 4.39 4+ 3.57
3 4 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 6.13 Un 1.5 4.12
5 10.99 Ov 2.5 1.89
6+ 38.46 Un 2.5 2.12
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 3.57
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.05 3.08 2.34
2-3 goals 2.34 6.05 2.45
4+ goals 3.68 2.89 2.62
Ov 1.5 2.71 4.31 2.51
Un 1.5 4.05 3.08 2.34
Ov 2.5 2.57 5.46 2.33
Un 2.5 3.51 2.98 2.63
Ov 3.5 3.68 2.89 2.62
Un 3.5 2.73 4.56 2.41
Goal-Goal 2.97 2.91 3.13
No Goal 2.92 6.18 2.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.51 4.47 2.65
NG+Un 2.5 2.93 6.18 2.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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