Wigan Vs Burton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Wigan and Burton for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.76 3.68 4.62 2.02 1.82
Estim 1.95 3.89 4.33 2.11 1.9
Value % -5.54 -1.47 1.45 -2.11 -2.31



Basic Data and latest results


Wigan basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 6 3 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Home 4 1 3 54 8 5 4 4




Wigan latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Lincoln H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct AFC Wimbledon A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Milton Keynes Dons H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Bolton A 4 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Gillingham A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Sheffield Weds H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Cheltenham H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Accrington A 4 1 W O Gg



Burton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 2 3 38 4 4 2 5




Burton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
23 Oct Oxford H 1 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Fleetwood Town A 1 0 W U Ng
15 Oct Morecambe H 3 2 W O Gg
09 Oct Plymouth A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct AFC Wimbledon A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Sep Portsmouth H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Lincoln H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Crewe A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Wigan is -0.026 and for the Burton is 0.133.
  • The home dynamic for the Wigan is 0.453 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burton is -0.313.
  • The offensive ability for the Wigan is 1 and for the Burton is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Wigan is 0.4 and for the Burton is -0.559.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Wigan 18% 35% 28% 19%
Burton 38% 35% 16% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.62 goals and Burton to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Wigan to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.48 goals and Burton to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Wigan to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.29 0-1 3.75
1 5.08 2-3 1.97
2 3.85 4+ 4.41
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.76 Un 1.5 3.75
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.11
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.9
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 4.41
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.01 3.81 4.17
2-3 goals 1.81 4.16 4.83
4+ goals 2.27 3.49 3.66
Ov 1.5 1.93 3.93 4.4
Un 1.5 2.01 3.81 4.17
Ov 2.5 1.74 7.29 3.46
Un 2.5 2.19 2.74 5.61
Ov 3.5 2.27 3.49 3.66
Un 3.5 1.87 4.03 4.58
Goal-Goal 2.55 2.7 4.24
No Goal 1.58 7.1 4.44
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.93 5.88 3.21
NG+Un 2.5 1.68 7.1 4.31



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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