Woking Vs Altrincham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Woking and Altrincham for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.98 3.56 3.52 1.84 1.99
Estim 2.24 3.85 3.42 2 2
Value % -5.86 -2.12 0.83 -4.35 -0.25



Basic Data and latest results


Woking basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 2
At Home 2 0 2 50 3 3 2 2




Woking latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Yeovil A 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Maidenhead A 2 3 L O Gg
09 Oct Grimsby H 0 1 L U Ng
05 Oct Dag and Red H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Notts County A 4 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Chesterfield H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Eastleigh A 2 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Wrexham A 0 1 L U Ng



Altrincham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 6 5 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 3 39 4 6 3 3




Altrincham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Oct Solihull H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Eastleigh A 1 2 L O Gg
12 Oct Yeovil A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Maidenhead H 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Grimsby H 2 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Dag and Red A 3 2 W O Gg
28 Sep King’s Lynn H 4 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Notts County H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Woking is -0.14 and for the Altrincham is -0.237.
  • The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.111 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is -0.185.
  • The offensive ability for the Woking is 0.13 and for the Altrincham is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is -0.547 and for the Altrincham is -0.621.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Woking 25% 29% 25% 21%
Altrincham 32% 36% 21% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.58 goals and Altrincham to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Woking to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.41 goals and Altrincham to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.82
1 5.46 2-3 2.07
2 4.22 4+ 3.94
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.25 Un 1.5 3.82
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 3.94
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.82 3.32 2.91
2-3 goals 2.05 4.59 3.39
4+ goals 2.13 3.34 4.31
Ov 1.5 2.08 4.07 3.66
Un 1.5 2.82 3.32 2.91
Ov 2.5 1.81 6.57 3.37
Un 2.5 2.9 2.71 3.49
Ov 3.5 2.13 3.34 4.31
Un 3.5 2.27 4.04 3.21
Goal-Goal 2.44 2.82 4.22
No Goal 2.05 6.16 2.86
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.94 5.34 3.36
NG+Un 2.5 2.29 6.16 2.76



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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