Amorebieta Vs Valladolid

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Amorebieta and Valladolid for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4 3.29 1.92 2.28 1.67
Estim 2.57 3.47 3.1 2.49 1.67
Value % 13.91 -1.58 -19.83 -3.7 0



Basic Data and latest results


Amorebieta basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 3 2 33 6 6 4 2




Amorebieta latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Huesca A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Sociedad B H 1 2 L O Gg
20 Oct Fuenlabrada A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Cartagena H 2 3 L O Gg
10 Oct Tenerife A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Eibar H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Leganes A 0 1 L U Ng



Valladolid basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 6 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 3 2 2 52 5 5 3 4




Valladolid latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Eibar H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Sp Gijon A 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Ibiza H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Leganes A 2 0 W U Ng
08 Oct Malaga H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Ponferradina A 2 2 D O Gg
26 Sep Alcorcon H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Girona A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Amorebieta is -0.46 and for the Valladolid is 0.659.
  • The home dynamic for the Amorebieta is -0.493 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valladolid is 0.348.
  • The offensive ability for the Amorebieta is 0.586 and for the Valladolid is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Amorebieta is -0.591 and for the Valladolid is 0.06.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Amorebieta 29% 36% 23% 11%
Valladolid 34% 36% 21% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Amorebieta to score 0.84 goals and Valladolid to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the guest team Valladolid to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Amorebieta to score 1.17 goals and Valladolid to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10 0-1 3.05
1 4.39 2-3 2.02
2 3.7 4+ 5.65
3 4.46 Ov 1.5 1.49
4 8.2 Un 1.5 3.05
5 22.22 Ov 2.5 2.49
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.67
Gg 2.15 Ov 3.5 5.65
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.67 3.28 3.12
2-3 goals 2.45 3.8 3.05
4+ goals 2.81 3.05 3.16
Ov 1.5 2.53 3.57 3.08
Un 1.5 2.67 3.28 3.12
Ov 2.5 2.17 6.91 2.54
Un 2.5 2.95 2.6 3.62
Ov 3.5 2.81 3.05 3.16
Un 3.5 2.53 3.57 3.08
Goal-Goal 3.17 2.48 3.56
No Goal 2.21 5.33 2.78
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.29 5.79 2.56
NG+Un 2.5 2.31 5.33 2.84



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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