Barnsley Vs Derby

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Barnsley and Derby for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.27 3.2 3.38 2.35 1.62
Estim 2.36 3.46 3.47 2.36 1.73
Value % -1.68 -2.35 -0.77 -0.18 -3.92



Basic Data and latest results


Barnsley basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 0 6 0 3 6 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Home 1 2 4 24 4 5 2 5




Barnsley latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Bristol City A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Sheffield United H 2 3 L O Gg
20 Oct Middlesbrough A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Reading A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Millwall H 0 1 L U Ng
29 Sep Nott’m Forest H 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Blackpool A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Blackburn H 0 0 D U Ng



Derby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 4 3 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 3 3 29 3 4 1 6




Derby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Blackburn H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Coventry A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Oct Luton H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Preston A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Swansea H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Sep Reading H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Sheffield United A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Stoke H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Barnsley is -1 and for the Derby is -0.048.
  • The home dynamic for the Barnsley is -0.822 and the dynamic as a guest for the Derby is -0.24.
  • The offensive ability for the Barnsley is -0.145 and for the Derby is -0.129.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnsley is -1 and for the Derby is 0.311.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Barnsley 30% 35% 14% 21%
Derby 38% 37% 11% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.25 goals and Derby to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Barnsley to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.26 goals and Derby to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 8.77 0-1 2.78
1 4.07 2-3 2.33
2 4.59 4+ 4.74
3 4.74 Ov 1.5 1.56
4 7.09 Un 1.5 2.78
5 23.81 Ov 2.5 2.37
6+ 35.71 Un 2.5 1.73
Gg 2.3 Ov 3.5 4.74
NoG 1.77 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.67 3.16 3.24
2-3 goals 2.29 3.25 3.9
4+ goals 2.09 4.91 3.15
Ov 1.5 2.22 3.66 3.62
Un 1.5 2.67 3.16 3.24
Ov 2.5 1.8 9.81 2.91
Un 2.5 3.06 2.35 4.04
Ov 3.5 2.09 4.91 3.15
Un 3.5 2.45 3.21 3.57
Goal-Goal 2.82 2.48 4.13
No Goal 2.1 4.96 3.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.96 7.02 2.88
NG+Un 2.5 2.36 4.96 3.12



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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