Birmingham Vs Bristol City

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Birmingham and Bristol City for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.93 3.55 4.08 2.08 1.78
Estim 2.33 3.62 3.4 2.19 1.84
Value % -8.9 -0.54 4.9 -2.41 -1.83



Basic Data and latest results


Birmingham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 2 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 1 2
At Home 2 2 3 38 3 4 3 4




Birmingham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Middlesbrough A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Swansea H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Huddersfield A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Oct West Brom A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Nott’m Forest H 0 3 L O Ng
28 Sep QPR A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Preston H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Peterboro A 0 3 L O Ng



Bristol City basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 6 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Away 4 0 3 57 5 7 6 1




Bristol City latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Barnsley H 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct West Brom A 0 3 L O Ng
19 Oct Nott’m Forest H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Bournemouth H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Peterboro A 3 2 W O Gg
29 Sep Millwall A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Fulham H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep QPR A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Birmingham is 0.008 and for the Bristol City is -0.345.
  • The home dynamic for the Birmingham is -0.351 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol City is 0.267.
  • The offensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.471 and for the Bristol City is -0.769.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.13 and for the Bristol City is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Birmingham 24% 36% 25% 16%
Bristol City 33% 38% 19% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.51 goals and Bristol City to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Birmingham to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.32 goals and Bristol City to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.52
1 4.85 2-3 2.01
2 3.85 4+ 4.61
3 4.22 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.52
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.2
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.84
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.61
NoG 2.06 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.45 3.64 3.16
2-3 goals 2.22 3.68 3.6
4+ goals 2.47 3.44 3.29
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.61 3.5
Un 1.5 2.45 3.64 3.16
Ov 2.5 1.96 7.21 2.86
Un 2.5 2.78 2.55 4.03
Ov 3.5 2.47 3.44 3.29
Un 3.5 2.3 3.67 3.43
Goal-Goal 2.83 2.59 3.85
No Goal 1.97 6.23 3.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.98 2.83
NG+Un 2.5 2.09 6.23 3.03



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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