Blackburn Vs Fulham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Blackburn and Fulham for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.74 3.65 1.97 1.86 2
Estim 2.8 3.77 2.65 2.02 1.98
Value % 8.98 -0.87 -13.03 -4.26 0.51



Basic Data and latest results


Blackburn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Home 4 2 1 67 7 5 5 2




Blackburn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Derby A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Reading H 2 0 W U Ng
19 Oct QPR A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Coventry H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Blackpool A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Huddersfield A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Cardiff H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Barnsley A 0 0 D U Ng



Fulham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 3 5 1
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 0 2 1
At Away 4 1 2 62 6 6 5 2




Fulham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct West Brom H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Nott’m Forest A 4 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Cardiff H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct QPR H 4 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Coventry A 1 4 L O Gg
29 Sep Swansea H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Bristol City A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Reading H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Blackburn is -0.008 and for the Fulham is 0.852.
  • The home dynamic for the Blackburn is 0.369 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is 0.439.
  • The offensive ability for the Blackburn is 0.586 and for the Fulham is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackburn is -0.565 and for the Fulham is 0.639.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Blackburn 31% 29% 26% 15%
Fulham 26% 33% 26% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.01 goals and Fulham to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Fulham to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.25 goals and Fulham to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.35 0-1 3.86
1 5.62 2-3 2.05
2 4.08 4+ 3.94
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.33 Un 1.5 3.86
5 13.33 Ov 2.5 2.01
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 3.94
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.41 3.2 2.54
2-3 goals 2.54 5.08 2.44
4+ goals 2.89 2.85 3.3
Ov 1.5 2.65 4.01 2.68
Un 1.5 3.41 3.2 2.54
Ov 2.5 2.34 5.58 2.54
Un 2.5 3.5 2.85 2.75
Ov 3.5 2.89 2.85 3.3
Un 3.5 2.79 4.22 2.47
Goal-Goal 2.95 2.76 3.34
No Goal 2.68 6.05 2.17
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.4 4.66 2.71
NG+Un 2.5 2.83 6.05 2.23



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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