Blackpool Vs Stoke

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Blackpool and Stoke for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.06 3.37 2.35 2.09 1.78
Estim 2.39 3.75 3.17 2.07 1.94
Value % 9.16 -3.01 -11.01 0.46 -4.63



Basic Data and latest results


Blackpool basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Home 4 0 3 57 4 4 2 5




Blackpool latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Sheffield United A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Preston H 2 0 W U Ng
20 Oct Reading A 3 2 W O Gg
16 Oct Nott’m Forest A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Blackburn H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Hull A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Barnsley H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Middlesbrough A 2 1 W O Gg



Stoke basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 2 4 24 5 6 5 2




Stoke latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Cardiff H 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Millwall A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Bournemouth H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Sheffield United A 1 2 L O Gg
01 Oct West Brom H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Preston A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Hull H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Derby A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Blackpool is 0.651 and for the Stoke is -0.415.
  • The home dynamic for the Blackpool is 0.102 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stoke is -0.511.
  • The offensive ability for the Blackpool is 1 and for the Stoke is 0.361.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackpool is -0.104 and for the Stoke is -0.563.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Blackpool 26% 33% 23% 18%
Stoke 32% 34% 23% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.08 goals and Stoke to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.34 goals and Stoke to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.2 0-1 3.66
1 5.24 2-3 2.07
2 4.13 4+ 4.1
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.54 Un 1.5 3.66
5 14.49 Ov 2.5 2.06
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 4.1
NoG 2.03 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.6 3.33 3.17
2-3 goals 2.3 4.36 2.97
4+ goals 2.35 3.3 3.7
Ov 1.5 2.32 3.94 3.18
Un 1.5 2.6 3.33 3.17
Ov 2.5 2.02 6.57 2.84
Un 2.5 2.89 2.67 3.58
Ov 3.5 2.35 3.3 3.7
Un 3.5 2.4 3.92 3.04
Goal-Goal 2.79 2.75 3.6
No Goal 2.08 6.01 2.83
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.18 5.36 2.82
NG+Un 2.5 2.27 6.01 2.81



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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