Bournemouth Vs Preston

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Preston for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.59 3.92 5.8 1.95 1.87
Estim 1.73 4.1 5.65 2 2
Value % -5.09 -1.12 0.46 -1.28 -3.48



Basic Data and latest results


Bournemouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 5 1 2 4
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 0 1 2
At Home 5 2 0 81 7 5 7 0




Bournemouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Reading A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Huddersfield H 3 0 W O Ng
19 Oct Stoke A 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Bristol City A 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Sheffield United H 2 1 W O Gg
29 Sep Peterboro A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Luton H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Cardiff A 1 0 W U Ng



Preston basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Away 0 3 4 14 3 5 3 4




Preston latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Luton H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Blackpool A 0 2 L U Ng
20 Oct Coventry H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Derby H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct QPR A 2 3 L O Gg
28 Sep Stoke H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Birmingham A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep West Brom H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bournemouth is 1 and for the Preston is 0.066.
  • The home dynamic for the Bournemouth is 0.751 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is -0.611.
  • The offensive ability for the Bournemouth is 0.674 and for the Preston is -0.265.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bournemouth is 1 and for the Preston is 0.06.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bournemouth 15% 31% 31% 23%
Preston 37% 42% 14% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.79 goals and Preston to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.63 goals and Preston to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.86 0-1 4.27
1 5.62 2-3 1.87
2 3.76 4+ 4.33
3 3.7 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.17 Un 1.5 4.27
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.87 Ov 3.5 4.33
NoG 2.15 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.03 4.18 3.71
2-3 goals 1.61 4.09 7.44
4+ goals 1.76 3.98 5.5
Ov 1.5 1.65 4.06 6.73
Un 1.5 2.03 4.18 3.71
Ov 2.5 1.44 8.64 5.33
Un 2.5 2.17 2.67 6.02
Ov 3.5 1.76 3.98 5.5
Un 3.5 1.72 4.12 5.7
Goal-Goal 2.04 2.83 6.37
No Goal 1.47 8.32 5.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.54 6.97 4.81
NG+Un 2.5 1.6 8.32 4.45



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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