Burgos Vs Zaragoza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Burgos and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.74 2.98 2.66 2.52 1.53
Estim 2.04 3.73 4.12 2.23 1.81
Value % 12.52 -6.75 -13.32 5.16 -10.11



Basic Data and latest results


Burgos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 5 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Home 3 2 1 61 4 3 2 4




Burgos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Tenerife A 0 4 L O Ng
24 Oct Huesca H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Oviedo A 3 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
10 Oct Alcorcon A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Mirandes H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Ibiza A 0 2 L U Ng
20 Sep Las Palmas H 0 0 D U Ng



Zaragoza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 6 0 33 4 4 0 6
Last 3 0 3 0 33 3 3 0 3
At Away 1 4 1 39 5 6 1 5




Zaragoza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Mirandes H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Oct Girona A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Oct Ponferradina H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Malaga A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Oct Huesca H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Oviedo H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Lugo A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Sociedad B H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Burgos is 0.23 and for the Zaragoza is 0.022.
  • The home dynamic for the Burgos is 0.262 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zaragoza is 0.131.
  • The offensive ability for the Burgos is 0.181 and for the Zaragoza is -0.048.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Burgos is -0.678 and for the Zaragoza is -0.158.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Burgos 21% 34% 26% 18%
Zaragoza 37% 37% 18% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burgos to score 1.03 goals and Zaragoza to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burgos to score 1.41 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Burgos to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.48
1 4.83 2-3 1.97
2 3.79 4+ 4.83
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.48
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 2.03 Ov 3.5 4.83
NoG 1.97 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.22 3.59 3.68
2-3 goals 1.94 4.02 4.23
4+ goals 2.09 3.34 4.5
Ov 1.5 1.98 3.8 4.3
Un 1.5 2.22 3.59 3.68
Ov 2.5 1.72 7.26 3.57
Un 2.5 2.43 2.67 4.67
Ov 3.5 2.09 3.34 4.5
Un 3.5 2.04 3.85 4.01
Goal-Goal 2.53 2.62 4.48
No Goal 1.73 6.35 3.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.88 5.92 3.34
NG+Un 2.5 1.87 6.35 3.6



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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