Cardiff Vs QPR

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cardiff and QPR for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.63 3.39 2.67 1.86 2
Estim 3.21 3.7 2.39 2.16 1.87
Value % -6.87 -2.47 4.39 -7.47 3.48



Basic Data and latest results


Cardiff basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 1 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 5 19 3 7 3 4




Cardiff latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Stoke A 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Middlesbrough H 0 2 L U Ng
20 Oct Fulham A 0 2 L U Ng
17 Oct Swansea A 0 3 L O Ng
02 Oct Reading H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Sep West Brom H 0 4 L O Ng
25 Sep Blackburn A 1 5 L O Gg
18 Sep Bournemouth H 0 1 L U Ng



QPR basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 2 1 4 33 7 6 7 0




QPR latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Oct Nott’m Forest H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Peterboro A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Blackburn H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Fulham A 1 4 L O Gg
02 Oct Preston H 3 2 W O Gg
28 Sep Birmingham H 2 0 W U Ng
24 Sep West Brom A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Bristol City H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cardiff is -0.786 and for the QPR is 0.153.
  • The home dynamic for the Cardiff is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the QPR is -0.394.
  • The offensive ability for the Cardiff is -0.912 and for the QPR is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cardiff is -1 and for the QPR is -0.093.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cardiff 34% 35% 16% 15%
QPR 25% 35% 25% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.31 goals and QPR to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.13 goals and QPR to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.76 0-1 3.44
1 4.85 2-3 2.09
2 4.07 4+ 4.33
3 4.29 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 6.85 Un 1.5 3.44
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.33
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.27 3.42 2.49
2-3 goals 3.55 3.93 2.16
4+ goals 2.6 3.67 2.92
Ov 1.5 3.17 3.84 2.36
Un 1.5 3.27 3.42 2.49
Ov 2.5 2.54 7.37 2.13
Un 2.5 4.13 2.59 2.68
Ov 3.5 2.6 3.67 2.92
Un 3.5 3.44 3.72 2.27
Goal-Goal 3.42 2.68 2.99
No Goal 3.01 5.94 2
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.58 5.94 2.25
NG+Un 2.5 3.19 5.94 2.07



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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