Coventry Vs Swansea

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Coventry and Swansea for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.16 3.41 3.4 1.97 1.87
Estim 1.94 3.88 4.42 2.03 1.97
Value % 5.25 -3.55 -6.79 -1.5 -2.71



Basic Data and latest results


Coventry basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 6 1 0 90 7 4 4 3




Coventry latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Hull A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Derby H 1 1 D U Gg
20 Oct Preston A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Blackburn A 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Fulham H 4 1 W O Gg
29 Sep Luton A 0 5 L O Ng
24 Sep Peterboro H 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Millwall A 1 1 D U Gg



Swansea basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 3 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 3 0
At Away 1 2 4 24 6 5 5 2




Swansea latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Peterboro H 3 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Birmingham A 1 2 L O Gg
20 Oct West Brom H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Cardiff H 3 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Derby A 0 0 D U Ng
29 Sep Fulham A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Huddersfield H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Luton A 3 3 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Coventry is 0.111 and for the Swansea is 0.266.
  • The home dynamic for the Coventry is 0.831 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swansea is -0.457.
  • The offensive ability for the Coventry is 0.674 and for the Swansea is 0.456.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Coventry is -0.539 and for the Swansea is 0.497.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Coventry 18% 32% 29% 20%
Swansea 34% 40% 17% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.44 goals and Swansea to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.52 goals and Swansea to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.62 0-1 4.05
1 5.46 2-3 1.93
2 3.85 4+ 4.27
3 3.89 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.33 Un 1.5 4.05
5 16.95 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.97
Gg 1.88 Ov 3.5 4.27
NoG 2.15 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.27 3.86 3.34
2-3 goals 1.79 4.04 5.17
4+ goals 2.02 3.55 4.5
Ov 1.5 1.85 3.87 4.94
Un 1.5 2.27 3.86 3.34
Ov 2.5 1.62 7.44 4.06
Un 2.5 2.41 2.64 4.83
Ov 3.5 2.02 3.55 4.5
Un 3.5 1.92 3.98 4.39
Goal-Goal 2.28 2.75 5.08
No Goal 1.66 7.27 3.84
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.73 6.14 3.86
NG+Un 2.5 1.8 7.27 3.61



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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