Crewe Vs Doncaster

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Crewe and Doncaster for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.4 3.32 2.86 1.98 1.85
Estim 2 3.86 4.13 2.1 1.91
Value % 8.33 -4.21 -10.75 -2.89 -1.7



Basic Data and latest results


Crewe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 4 6 5 1
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 2 4 24 5 6 4 3




Crewe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Milton Keynes Dons H 1 4 L O Gg
23 Oct Wycombe A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Sunderland H 0 4 L O Ng
16 Oct Fleetwood Town A 0 3 L O Ng
02 Oct Cambridge H 2 2 D O Gg
28 Sep Plymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Rotherham A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Morecambe H 1 3 L O Gg



Doncaster basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 0 8 0 2 8 4 4




Doncaster latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Charlton A 0 4 L O Ng
26 Oct Cambridge H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Cheltenham H 3 2 W O Gg
19 Oct Gillingham A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Wycombe H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Milton Keynes Dons H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Ipswich A 0 6 L O Ng
25 Sep Plymouth A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Crewe is -0.698 and for the Doncaster is -0.214.
  • The home dynamic for the Crewe is -0.787 and the dynamic as a guest for the Doncaster is -1.
  • The offensive ability for the Crewe is 0.207 and for the Doncaster is -0.864.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Crewe is -1 and for the Doncaster is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Crewe 19% 34% 28% 19%
Doncaster 37% 35% 17% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.31 goals and Doncaster to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.46 goals and Doncaster to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Crewe to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.75
1 5.13 2-3 1.99
2 3.91 4+ 4.35
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.67 Un 1.5 3.75
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.1
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.91
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 4.35
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.1 3.71 3.93
2-3 goals 1.86 4.19 4.49
4+ goals 2.3 3.43 3.65
Ov 1.5 1.98 3.92 4.19
Un 1.5 2.1 3.71 3.93
Ov 2.5 1.78 7.12 3.36
Un 2.5 2.27 2.72 5.18
Ov 3.5 2.3 3.43 3.65
Un 3.5 1.93 4.01 4.28
Goal-Goal 2.57 2.71 4.15
No Goal 1.64 6.86 4.08
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.96 5.76 3.16
NG+Un 2.5 1.75 6.86 3.99



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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