Ibiza Vs Tenerife

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ibiza and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.42 3.02 2.99 2.5 1.54
Estim 2.53 3.47 3.15 2.48 1.68
Value % -1.8 -4.29 -1.7 0.32 -5.41



Basic Data and latest results


Ibiza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 3 1 50 5 5 2 4




Ibiza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Alcorcon A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Fuenlabrada H 3 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Valladolid A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Mirandes H 0 2 L U Ng
10 Oct Cartagena A 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Eibar A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Burgos H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Oviedo H 1 1 D U Gg



Tenerife basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Away 4 1 2 62 6 5 5 2




Tenerife latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Burgos H 4 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Leganes A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Eibar H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
10 Oct Amorebieta H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Huesca A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Almeria A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Mirandes H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ibiza is 0.008 and for the Tenerife is 0.415.
  • The home dynamic for the Ibiza is 0.022 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tenerife is 0.448.
  • The offensive ability for the Ibiza is 0.621 and for the Tenerife is 0.361.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ibiza is -0.539 and for the Tenerife is -0.421.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ibiza 29% 36% 24% 12%
Tenerife 34% 36% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ibiza to score 1.12 goals and Tenerife to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ibiza to score 1.18 goals and Tenerife to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.1 0-1 3.07
1 4.41 2-3 2.02
2 3.7 4+ 5.56
3 4.44 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 8.13 Un 1.5 3.07
5 21.74 Ov 2.5 2.47
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.68
Gg 2.13 Ov 3.5 5.56
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.65 3.29 3.13
2-3 goals 2.39 3.81 3.13
4+ goals 2.73 3.05 3.27
Ov 1.5 2.47 3.57 3.17
Un 1.5 2.65 3.29 3.13
Ov 2.5 2.11 6.86 2.63
Un 2.5 2.92 2.6 3.66
Ov 3.5 2.73 3.05 3.27
Un 3.5 2.49 3.59 3.13
Goal-Goal 3.09 2.48 3.66
No Goal 2.18 5.37 2.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.23 5.75 2.65
NG+Un 2.5 2.28 5.37 2.86



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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